Louis: 0:00

Hey there, welcome to another Tesla Motors Club podcast. My name is Lewis.

Doug: 0:04

I'm Doug.

Mike: 0:04

And I'm Mike.

Louis: 0:06

Today's episode, we're going to cover all the new details that came out around the Model Y, which was leaked through Australian Tesla. we'll also look at our scorecards for our predictions that we made last year. And of course, we'll do some new predictions for 2025, the new year, new podcasts starting off again. Episode 71 starts now and we're back. Hey, gentlemen,

Doug: 0:32

Hey, happy new

Louis: 0:33

happy new year. It's been a crazy couple of weeks,

Mike: 0:36

Indeed.

Louis: 0:37

2025. Oh man. So anything new, anything fun to share I Mean, Doug's going to be down my way later this

Doug: 0:44

Oh yeah, yeah,

Louis: 0:46

we're going to see each other a couple of days.

Mike: 0:48

I'm

Doug: 0:48

Yeah, I'm gonna make my way out for the , Astro Awards., that's , done by um,

Louis: 0:53

Everyday astronaut.

Doug: 0:54

Tim Dodd, Everyday Astronaut. wanted to do kind of a production note. Behind the scenes a little bit. We do the show when we can. sorry that it hasn't been as frequent lately. A lot of us have been busy. Some of us have been dealing with natural disasters.

Mike: 1:10

a bit.

Doug: 1:11

The other thing is that, , there are two versions of this podcast. There's , the YouTube version, which we record live., you just see what it is here. And then you can, come back watch it. And then we also do an audio version it used to be the audio version was just, , the YouTube audio, basically,, but, , I try to do a better job of it now. Where, , kind of get rid of pauses and, , time. Someone's been looking something up, basically respecting the time of the audio listener. Also, , since they don't have the visuals, they can't necessarily tell what's going on. The thing is though, I've been doing that myself and it takes a lot of time. I mean literally I spend hours. On that and part of it is I'm a little bit of a perfectionist but so I want to apologize. Basically, , the last few haven't really come out yet because I've been traveling and other things going on., so what I will try to do. Is, , this particular episode, I'll try to get out as soon as possible, , in the audio version, and then I will work on sort of backfilling the previous episodes. So audio listeners, you know, , if you're like missing something, obviously you can just go get it from YouTube, and watch that. But if you're waiting for a more polished version, come, but I'll probably do it in reverse order., like I'll do the,, most recent one. Next and just sort of walk back. I think I'm missing like 3. So anyway, just a little, background on that. And , I'm working on it, but it's, takes some time. So anyway,, Mike, what can you tell us about the new Model Y?

Mike: 2:29

Where would you like to start they call it the refresh and I guess very broad stroke, that's true. But there's a lot going on with the Y that is a little bit more than just a, traditional refresh., they've changed up some of the electronics. They've left a stalk. They've removed shifting stalk. So if you want to shift the car, you have to push a button on the screen or push the button in the overhead. But if you want to hit your turn signal, that's still there., remains to be seen if they fix the wipers yet. Kind of looking forward to that, but they've got ventilated seats. Now they've got a screen in the back for your passengers. Obvious changes are the front and back. We've got the light bar front and back. Now, there seems to be quite the debate on the community about that light bar. I've seen renderings where people have removed it. And personally speaking, I like it removed. I'm not a fan of the light bar the way it sits today. If I wanted a Cybertruck, I'd buy one.

Doug: 3:30

Let's talk about that a little bit.

Mike: 3:32

Sure,

Doug: 3:32

so the light bar, , it evokes, the Cybertruck

Mike: 3:36

very strongly.

Doug: 3:37

and then also the cyber cab The thing is, , I know Elon wants to look like the future, but, this look, even when the cyber cab came out, it basically looks like the Volkswagen. XL one or something like that. concept vehicle. don't know that this is futuristic anymore. Like I feel like that front light bar thing is stale at this point. Isn't it?

Louis: 3:57

I think so.

Mike: 3:58

I called it dated, but stale works. I do kind of like how they smoothed out the front and got rid of the little bubble lip. That's a minor update. are a lot of minor updates. Now, one thing is interesting that people won't generally pick up on unless you've either been a victim of it or you're paying attention on the back of the trunk below the light bar is now a separate panel and what people who have been a victim of this myself included when you get hit in the rear, uh, It's almost always guaranteed to replace that entire rear hatch, because that lower panel is not a separate piece. So even if the hatch is fine, the glass is fine, everything's fine, if you get a dent in there, they replace the entire hatch. Now with that being a panel, there's a fighting chance that they can just repair that one small panel and leave the hatch alone and reduce the cost. I hope that's true.

Doug: 4:47

So what it looks like is they've made the rear diffuser. More proud

Mike: 4:52

They have.

Doug: 4:53

So For a normal vehicle hitting it. Maybe that's what gets damaged black plastic as opposed to painted body panel.

Mike: 4:59

when I got rear ended by a Toyota, , not a Honda bump. I got a Toyota bump. It hit the diffuser, which is the plastic piece below. And it hit me just below my license plate on the metalwork that's between the gap and the license plate. Now I was lucky. I was able to get a PDR guy to pull that out. But if I had not been able to do that, they were talking about replacing the entire rear hatch.

Doug: 5:27

Mm hmm. And PDR's paint list didn't repair.

Mike: 5:29

dent removal.

Doug: 5:30

I think what they've done now is, that license plate is now down in the diffuser, isn't it?

Mike: 5:36

Yes, it is.

Doug: 5:37

rear of the trunk. Looks pretty blank, doesn't it?

Mike: 5:40

Yeah. They moved the plate down.

Louis: 5:41

Yeah, the plates way down here

Mike: 5:43

we'll, see.

Doug: 5:44

Yeah, we'll see. one of the funniest things to me about it is look, the model Y, it is their best selling vehicle

Mike: 5:51

By far.

Doug: 5:53

that up. You know, we've had this discussion so many times about, the lack of stalks on the new model three. And it turns out that this model Y.

Mike: 6:02

They split the

Doug: 6:03

we'll get one stalk. for the turn signal.

Mike: 6:06

One. That's right.

Doug: 6:07

don't know if it's a tacit, , admission , of a mistake there, but, it's welcome, but now to me, it's unbalanced, Oh, you get one stalk. why not give me two?

Mike: 6:16

That's really kind of interesting because know, Elon had to personally approve that design. some little design engineer didn't sign this off without the blessing of the boss.

Doug: 6:25

some people probably lobbied him quite a bit and some people probably lost their jobs lobbying him about it.

Mike: 6:30

imagine so.

Louis: 6:31

I mean, I've said many times with the stalks, right? The turn signals, the only one that I care about, I don't ever miss the stalk for gear shifts and all that, but the turn signal for roundabouts, when you're in a turn, being able to signal partway through,

Mike: 6:45

cars have done push button shifting for decades. this is not new from the fifties on forward. It kind of comes and goes, you know, it seems to be a generational thing, , somebody tries it, sucks. And then they go back to stalks and then the next generation tries it. It goes back

Doug: 7:02

funny I'm trying to think

Mike: 7:04

BMW has got a knob, so

Doug: 7:06

I went back to, What do you call it? Three on the tree, four on the floor, three on the tree. that, kind of stalks the shift gears, the Mercedes had things like that, and that's actually where the model S got their switch gear. I guess the other thing about it is that FSD has gotten better. version 13, for people who have hardware four, the car is willing to go in reverse. And then one thing that's gotten better for me on, , hardware, three, is the parking assist. That's gotten a lot better and it goes forward and back and I'm not having to do that. So yeah, the need to change. Directions is less it's just not as necessary. Now, what I still use it for is, engaging and disengaging autopilot, but I take it Lewis, , there's a button on the steering wheel or something

Louis: 7:47

on the steering wheel. you press the right, , scroll wheel. You just press it down and that engages

Doug: 7:53

Hmm. you know what? I'm not that happy with the scroll wheels though, on my car

Mike: 7:57

Why is that

Doug: 7:58

it doesn't feel nice. It doesn't feel nice to press.. I use that fairly often at least on the left side to like pause audio. And it just feels kind of mushy and weird.

Mike: 8:08

mine are metal., are yours metal?

Doug: 8:10

No, it's rubbery.

Mike: 8:11

Yeah, mine are a cold metal, and that's about the only complaint I've got. They've got kind of a chunky feel when you press them, but as far as rolling response and how they feel when you roll them, they're fine. Other than the fact they're hard metal.

Doug: 8:24

Hmm.

, Mike: 8:25

now as far as Hardware 4 goes, I've put something in the neighborhood of 1500 miles in FSD in the last month, , since the last upgrade. And it's come a long ways.

Doug: 8:37

so you got, version 13. Now

Mike: 8:39

I do. And I'm impressed. It's not perfect, and it still tries to kill me occasionally,

Doug: 8:47

Yeah.

Mike: 8:48

it's gotten a hell of a lot better.

Doug: 8:49

Yeah. So, so with this new model, Y so now you got your model, why part of the reason you got it when you got it was

Mike: 8:55

it has stalks. I wanted my stalks.

, Doug: 8:58

so with this new Model Y how would you feel about. It now, that you do have a turn signal stalk

, Mike: 9:03

when I was going through the specs on the new Y, none of it really jumped out at me and said, this I have to have.

Doug: 9:10

Oh, yeah.

Mike: 9:11

Yeah, none of it. supposedly even revamped the suspension again, which is good. It's a point in their favor because the wise suspension from the beginning has been marginal.

Doug: 9:21

What Do you think I would like about it?.

Mike: 9:23

um, it's new. Yeah,

Louis: 9:28

front camera,

Doug: 9:29

You have the thing you're always getting on me about I'm getting on them about is the front camera. It has a front camera

Mike: 9:35

that's what they say. I haven't seen it yet, but that's what they say.

Doug: 9:38

When we had this discussion last year, about the new model 3 coming out, renderings or images, I think it actually did have a front camera at some point.

Mike: 9:47

Yeah, but it didn't keep it.

Doug: 9:49

yeah, we didn't get it. I think at this point they would have it. I mean, the Cybertruck. Has a front camera. It really should have a front camera. I guess there's a bit of an issue about, , keeping it clean, but, honestly, that's a solved problem. It's just whether they're willing to spend the money for it, you know, , honestly, if the camera itself had a nice hydrophobic coating and a wash jet, that's all you need.

Mike: 10:13

God, they've been doing that for 30 years.

Doug: 10:15

that's what I'm saying., this is a solved problem. The question is, are they going to spend the money to do that? The fact that the cyber truck has it, the fact that it's been shown on the, , cyber cab. I think they would do it. I think there is the intention for it. Hardware 4 probably. I don't know if it's using that input yet, but it probably can and should.

Louis: 10:34

Yeah. Hardware four has the input on the board for another camera.

Doug: 10:38

yeah, So just to finish up with the new Y. It's interesting. It's progress. glad that it looks different from the three though. I have to say, I'd prefer the look of the newer three to this., the light bar at this point, is feeling a little bit stale.

Mike: 10:53

So, Here's the question for you, Doug and Lewis. You see that blue color , it's a frontal shot of the new Y and what they call it. Glacier blue, which is about half as light as my dark blue., I kind of like this blue, at least from what I've seen. saw a story on Reddit where somebody was saying they had ordered a Y for a May delivery. They flagged it and called him and said, Hey, you have to change it to glacier blue. We won't give you the dark blue, or you can change it to some other color one time.

Louis: 11:23

Interesting.

Doug: 11:24

That's fine., Tesla again, saves money by having very few color options., and what that does is allows them to not have so many turnovers in their paint shop,

Mike: 11:35

That makes mine a classic now.

Doug: 11:37

I guess. Uh, yeah. colors come and go. It's nice to have some changes and little things that allow nerds like us to better say, Oh, that must be from this year because the color changed or whatever. That's fine. Especially since anyone can do whatever they want with a wrap these days.

Mike: 11:53

True enough.

Doug: 11:54

A color that's close to my heart was the Miata Laguna Blue, which I had on my 94 MX5 that I owned for, , 15 years or so. And that is not quite it, but it's getting closer to it and I kind of like it , when the Tesla Roadster, the original Tesla Roadster, all those bodies were made, , at the Lotus plant in Hethel, England and, Lotus has tons of colors. And so there was a glacier blue back then. And I tend to think it was about this color, maybe a little lighter. yeah, the Roadster had tons of color options because they were the Lotus colors, but they just renamed them. Like, , there was a color , I think it was called Laser Blue and Tesla called it Electric Blue or Magnetic Blue. Like they, it just, it was just a name

Mike: 12:37

Same paint. Yeah. Yeah. I

Doug: 12:39

just a different name, yeah.

Louis: 12:40

Of course.

Mike: 12:41

That's kind of what's going on with the Y, just, , minor. Well, I guess you could call some major changes like reskinning the nose and the front, but

Doug: 12:49

I think there are major improvements., ventilated seats. Once you've tried them, there are a huge improvement.

Mike: 12:55

been wanting that for a very long time.

Doug: 12:57

Yeah. that, was the one thing that I would really want from the new three versus my three, , my 2018 is a ventilated seats.

Mike: 13:06

Yeah, but that enough to get me to buy a new Y? No.

Doug: 13:09

no, it's not enough to get me to get a new three.

Louis: 13:12

But perhaps in a year, you'll have a stalk and you'll have a front camera and you'll have the ventilated seats.

Mike: 13:19

yeah.

Doug: 13:19

yeah.

Louis: 13:20

up those features.

Mike: 13:21

right. We're going to hit critical mass.

Doug: 13:23

the other thing is what kind of incentive will I get? because I'm supposed to

Mike: 13:26

Hardware 4.

Doug: 13:27

Elon said he'll make us whole, right? So

Louis: 13:30

I mean, just wait until next year. You'll get hardware five. You don't need hardware 4, and, uh,

Mike: 13:36

next year you have Optimus driving you around.

Louis: 13:38

the

Mike: 13:39

But that's the Y in a nutshell.

Doug: 13:41

Okay. so don't we, , talk about , our predictions for last year?

Mike: 13:44

How close we were.

Louis: 13:46

the wonderful predictions , have to say when we were looking through and seeing all the answers,, wasn't that bad. We definitely, were wrong on some of them for sure.

Doug: 13:57

What the heck do we know?

Mike: 13:58

got pretty close on a couple of them.

Doug: 14:00

All right. So yeah, , . It was episode number 57, , from last year where we, went over our, predictions for 2023 and made new predictions for 2024. This'll be our annual tradition . So let's dig in. Prediction for 2024. So let's see. the question was, , will Tesla unveil a brand new model in 2024? Let me read the question exactly. It says, , will Tesla unveil a brand new model, something they do not sell currently, have not sold in the past. Or have not announced they will sell such as a redesigned Roadster, , in 2024. And we all said, no, we basically all said, no. I said, I hope not because, I was complaining about Tesla unveiling something and then taking five years to deliver it., literally. and then I said, I would like to see them do a box van. So. We were all wrong, because Tesla did unveil the robo taxi at the cyber cab event. Actually, they called it the we robot event and our past couple episodes, two episodes ago was our sort of live watch party., and then we had a redux about a month ago, like the end of, November., , and I said, I wanted a van. They did kind of show a van, the Rabobin, , they called it. I wanted a box van, like a delivery van, , just another segment., we need to replace the diesel vehicles on the road. the UPS trucks and those sort of things and Rivian has done some of that and I think Tesla could be in that, place too,

Mike: 15:34

could be, if they chose to

Doug: 15:35

especially since they're doing a semi they could have a modified semi. Where, they put a box on the back of that thing., and I think that would be great.. But instead they showed the Reboven, which looked like something out of iRobot, and it looked completely impractical. It had ground clearance of, a pack of cards or something. You know, it, just to comment, they did finally start delivering the cyber truck and, people are interested in that, but it just wasn't that practical,, Tesla would have done gangbusters if they literally just, Made , what we considered the Tesla design language, between the S and the X or whatever, and just made a pickup truck version of that, , they would have done great. the highest selling vehicles in this country are pickup trucks.

Louis: 16:22

Yeah. The three highest selling models of vehicles or pickup trucks. It's literally F150s and then Chevy and then Dodge. Rams.

Doug: 16:32

yeah. And so the cyber truck, , it's , got some neat new technology, but. It's divisive and, uh, you know, it's a little off topic, but, my dad is now 93 years old and I've been driving him around a lot lately because he wants to go someplace. And I'm like, okay, my dad's 93. He wants to go someplace. I'm going to take him there, you know?, we were in DC and there was a, Big old cyber truck with a wrap that made it a matte black or whatever. And he was like, what is that? what is that piece of, you know, I'm not going to say what he said. who makes that? and I just had to explain, , it's Tesla., , you know, he doesn't keep up with these things, but it doesn't look like my three, my three looks, nice and sleek., and what's this thing, this brutalist, Judge Dredd vehicle.

Mike: 17:18

no kidding.

Doug: 17:19

anyway, it is what it is.

Louis: 17:21

So we were all wrong. Robo taxi.

Doug: 17:23

yeah, we're all wrong, robo taxing. Let's predict for next year. Will Tesla unveil a new model in 2025?, Louis: I feel like they're going to He hinted at some more roadster updates, , in the last few months.

Mike: 17:40

Yeah. But that's not new.

Louis: 17:41

but That's not new. Yeah. there's been some leaks around how now he's trying to get to like one second, zero to 60 instead of 1.99.

Doug: 17:49

Oh, he said that last year.

Louis: 17:51

But he said it like a few months ago though.

Doug: 17:53

said it again because he said it over a year ago and we've, talked about how that's ridiculous.

Louis: 17:58

Yeah, I think they're starting to work on that. But To the point of the question, do I think there's gonna be a new vehicle? Probably not, they might do a, some crazy thing just because, again, stock price, but I'm saying no.

Doug: 18:10

yeah, I guess no, the thing is, what they should be doing at this point, there should be a refresh on the model X. There should be a refresh on the Model S, , they're small, Potatoes compared to, , the volumes on the model Y and, , the model three. But, these should be the more luxury vehicles, they should invest something in that and go ahead and charge a premium for them for the people that want them and make them actually better, , do it., and then, yeah, there should be a van, there should be a proper pickup truck., so anyway, you have any comments, Mike??

Mike: 18:41

I think they're going to use the underpinnings of the Y and the interior as their new vehicle. They'll build a mommy car out of it. Like a van.

Doug: 18:48

okay. Yeah, maybe.

Mike: 18:50

I don't think it would be an X or an S. I don't think that's going to go anywhere.

Doug: 18:54

okay. Will Tesla get a publicly facing COO? And related to that was , will Elon step down, . There was a bit of controversy with Elon at the time, with the acquisition of Twitter and whatnot, he so thin, gee, SpaceX does so great with Gwynne Shotwell. Will someone else step up for Tesla? And we've all said they should. but they won't. and if we're going to make a prediction for next year, it would probably be the same, right?

Mike: 19:22

Yeah.

Louis: 19:24

Absolutely

Doug: 19:25

Yeah.

Louis: 19:26

This is an easy one.

Doug: 19:30

will Tesla offer FSD transfers in 2024? What did we say?

Louis: 19:34

I said yes, you said no. And Mike didn't really give an answer.

Doug: 19:38

Yeah, so, , Lewis is right,

Louis: 19:41

Yes.

Doug: 19:41

they did offer it. can you elaborate Lewis?

Louis: 19:45

They keep offering it right. They've done it a few times. We can get into it later. I know., I saw, , Stefan in the chat made a comment about hardware 3 users. We'll never get an upgrade. That's their prediction., ,I have a feeling that they're either working towards. An upgrade of some kind, or they're concerned about liability and they're really pushing towards trying to get people off of hardware three. so I think that they're going to keep offering , this, FSD transfer.

Doug: 20:11

Yeah, so I agree. If we, , push forward in terms of predicting for 2025. Yeah, , they'll offer it when they need it. And they're going to be especially offering it to people like me to try to reduce the number of folks that they have to do something for. and then the question is, what do they do if they're able to get those numbers down smaller and smaller?, cause then it makes less sense for them. To do a proper upgrade, right? because I think the only way they could really do it is they would have to design a board specifically for us that will have the connections with the hardware we already have and then, also have the form factor.

Mike: 20:46

you're such a small footprint right now and you're going to be a smaller footprint in the three years it takes to build the board. just don't see that being very practical, especially with the Ys bricking themselves because of the board defects they've got right now.

Doug: 21:00

those, guys will probably need a replacement as it is, to me, that's like the ring of death issue with the, uh, xbox 360, you know,

Mike: 21:08

Ring of death on your Y?

Doug: 21:09

that's a testing problem. That's, uh, what do you call it?

Mike: 21:13

QA.

Doug: 21:13

QA, Yeah. quality assurance.

Louis: 21:16

Yes. Mm

Doug: 21:17

so, yeah, they'll fix that.

Mike: 21:18

Well, they will, but that's time and effort and resources. They won't be able to apply to a 3 upgrade.

Doug: 21:24

well, you would hope that they would be iterating that anyway., and certainly at the chip level, someone is doing yield ramp for them. so that stuff is happening. or should be happening. so the question is Maybe they can just take that same chip, but they'll need a new motherboard. I mean, it's not that bad. I don't know. Maybe it can be done , if they can keep the same chip and somebody designs , the board that fits let it work with the existing hardware. Cause I doubt they want to change out cameras., they can probably get by without having to change out cameras. So

Louis: 21:55

I want new cameras.

Doug: 21:57

I do want new cameras. I want cameras that can actually read license plates when people hit and run me at night, which has happened twice. while I'm parked,, okay. Next one. So the question was in 2023, Tesla opened 11, 000 new supercharger stalls, reaching a global total of 50, 000, given the worldwide popularity of the model Y and how Tesla is opening superchargers to other vehicles. Wow \ It it feels so dated now., what do you think the worldwide total will be? this is supercharger stalls by the end of 2024. Now, Mike guessed 65, 000. I guessed 70, 000 Louis guessed 75, 000

Mike: 22:44

Optimusic that is.

Doug: 22:45

turned out to be 67, 000. Now, why would that be?

Louis: 22:51

So let's be very clear though. Yeah. I feel like this was rigged against me because Elon fired all of the supercharger staff partway through the year. fired all the supercharging people and then hired them back.

Doug: 23:07

what were the percentages on that? Cause a lot of those people moved on

Mike: 23:10

they didn't hire the woman that originally ran the superchargers.

Doug: 23:13

That's the only person that should been fired well she shouldn't have been fired to begin with, but that was the only one that made sense to fire given, the way Elon reacted,

Mike: 23:24

she was arguing for her people. She was doing the right thing.

Louis: 23:27

you have an issue with an executive over the whole department, you don't fire the whole department. Usually you fire

Mike: 23:33

That's right.

Louis: 23:34

and you bring in a different executive,

Doug: 23:35

except , the argument was about firing more people in your department.

Mike: 23:39

That's correct. She had been told to cut,

Louis: 23:41

the

Doug: 23:42

let me, really show you.

Louis: 23:45

me really fire

Doug: 23:46

Yeah, that was, that was kind of rough. So, yeah, that probably slowed things down. it certainly put some existing projects up in disarray. There's certainly amount of institutional knowledge , point of contact, like, who to reach, for certain things. And with those people gone.

Mike: 24:00

things as simple as a lease. whO do I talk to you about my lease? I just signed with Tesla. Yeah.

Louis: 24:04

That, being said in 2023, they added 11, 000 new superchargers in 2024. They added 17, 000. So they did increase by 50%, , or about,

Mike: 24:15

Well, I want, to qualify one thing. They did add. The stalls that we're talking about, including the version 4, magic dock stations. But what they ended up doing is they pulled back the magic dock and said, yeah, we're not going to give you that right now. So like, none of the magic docks around here work,, not as they should. You can't pull the magic dock out. You have to use an adapter, even though the docks there, even though the adapters there, even though it all works, it will charge cars. You cannot use the CCS adapter of the version four. It's locked in place.

Doug: 24:50

And what, vehicle do you use to test that?

Mike: 24:53

I use them on my Bolt.

Doug: 24:56

So I've done quite a bit of driving since , that firing. Right. I drove to Texas and I drove to Florida in that time, , I saw a lot of version 4, , cabinets and it's kind of interesting because, yeah, it's, better. You back up to them.

Mike: 25:10

They're nice.

Doug: 25:10

it seems like it's set up to charge a vehicle with the outlet on the right side, but it's long enough for me to reach over to my left side. Like,

Mike: 25:18

I can

Doug: 25:19

for everybody.

Mike: 25:20

side on the Bolt. I can pull straight in, center on the dock, pull around, charge. it's great.

Doug: 25:25

Yeah, it seems less protected., there aren't like the big bollard in the way.

Mike: 25:29

Yeah. Well,

Doug: 25:31

I don't know if people are crashing into them or what,

Mike: 25:33

everything's a trade off.

Doug: 25:34

yeah, so I, saw plenty of chargers , , rarely had to wait., for my travels, so, , they're doing a good job don't know how. Well, it's doing for folks on other vehicles, but it's still the main reason I Recommend Tesla to people.

Mike: 25:46

With, the adapters, according to the various subreddits I'm in, it's actually working very well. People are generally pretty happy.

Louis: 25:54

So again, this one, give it to Mike. Mike got it right for doing Price Is Right rules. If they hadn't done the firing, Doug probably would have been right.

Mike: 26:03

Maybe,

Louis: 26:03

I probably still overshot either way.

Doug: 26:06

we're all pretty close.

Louis: 26:08

pretty fair. I I

Doug: 26:09

All right, let me find the next one here.

Louis: 26:11

I'll talk to this one. So this one is, Will another vehicle Tesla or otherwise dethrone in model Y as the world's best selling car.

the answers that we gave: 26:18

Doug said, no, Mike said, no. And I said, yes. However, my yes was thinking about BYD and some other competitors. And the correct answer is yes. So it was dethroned. I was correct in it being dethroned, but I was wrong in the what dethroned it. It was the Toyota Corolla, which blew my brain because I did not think that that car was so popular

Doug: 26:50

For many years, it was the most popular car

Louis: 26:53

right.

Mike: 26:54

it's cheap and it's reliable. I mean, you know, what, where do you want

Louis: 26:56

but like for it to come back in 2024 and crush, like I wouldn't have expected that, but Yeah.

Doug: 27:03

is it that they crushed or is it that Tesla slipped a bit? I feel like that might be it.

Mike: 27:08

Tesla lost a lot of sales from year past.

Doug: 27:12

So this is for the first time in 2024. Tesla sold fewer vehicles than the previous year., and there could be many reasons for that., there's been a misreported softening on EVs. I think just , the rate of increase in, sales has reduced, but I think still in 2024, more EVs were sold than the previous year. It's just that there are more options, not just Tesla. And, it's hard to say how much this has affected things, but certainly Elon's reputation has changed some. Elon as the face of the company, , has kind of soured for people that are like, I want to buy an environmental vehicle. Elon's image hasn't really aligned with those values lately.

Louis: 27:52

There's definitely a shift in which, , segments of the population are pro Elon versus anti Elon, right? That's definitely shifted a lot of it having to do with Twitter and things like that., I think another factor, and I actually curious what you guys think., obviously the global economy, right? So exchange rates for the USD to other currencies, USD has been incredibly strong., a lot of different countries, economies have been slow to recover. due to inflation, all the other types of stuff going on. Do you think that was a factor or does Tesla not raise their prices based on that?

Mike: 28:25

I'm not sure that's got a lot to do with it. I think what has more to do with it, think Doug alluded to this a little bit is there's a limited pool of buyers for EVs at any point in time. And for the longest time, the only real EV of, any caliber was Tesla. That's not true today, because when you look at GM's growth and you look at,, Honda's, the new, , prologue and some of the other new cars that have come out of the market, they're doing really well. Despite all the naysayers, , the talking heads on the news, talking about how bad sales are, their sales are actually doing quite well. GM's up, Honda's up and Honda's up because , it's a brand new EV. Well, to them, it's brand new. It's a GM underneath the skin, but, they're not complaining, and that's not counting the smaller players.

Louis: 29:12

And I guess the other stuff too, like you said, like I assume BYD eroded a lot of Tesla stuff in China, right?

Doug: 29:18

in China. Yeah.

Louis: 29:19

China, was one of Tesla's big markets for a bit, briefly.

Mike: 29:24

I think they took a pretty big hit.

Doug: 29:25

and BYD has been doing things that. You've been hoping that Tesla would do. deserves its own topic.

Mike: 29:31

no kidding.

Doug: 29:32

maybe, we'll talk about it in a, future episode, but I can't remember the name, but basically the BYD has this, Roadster type vehicle. And they have, , a suspension system where it jumps over stuff, it's almost like turbo boost, from, Knight Rider.

Mike: 29:46

wasn't that speed racer that we used to bounce the car over things? Yeah.

Doug: 29:49

that.

Mike: 29:50

Yeah. Yeah.

Doug: 29:53

Given the personality that Elon has, that's the kind of thing that Elon would have Tesla working on. Except that he's had them, coming up with solutions like cold gas thrusters, which makes no sense. But having some kind of, Linear induction motor type suspension system that could, , basically hop over stuff um, For many years, , Bose the Bose sound system guy was a MIT professor and he worked on this thing called Project Sound. some friends , were TAs of, his class back , at MIT. And, , one thing they, demonstrated this product sound thing was this active, , suspension system on vehicles. This is back in the nineties where, you could basically drive over a very bumpy road, but the car itself stays level., so it's very good feedback suppose there are some patents on that, but, , I don't know. It's been 20 years, so it's probably expired by now. And, those are the kinds of things Tesla should be doing., the complaint I have, , when I'm driving my 93 year old dad around in my, , model three, I hit a pothole or something. He's like, Ooh, Ooh, like, I don't know. He feels all that stuff in his bones now, I guess. system that I can turn on and off that will, make the car feel like I'm just, , Driving on, a perfectly flat surface. Yeah, exactly.

Louis: 31:07

I agree. I feel like modern car improvements that I really want are just like smoother ride, quieter ride, you know, that kind of stuff.

Doug: 31:15

Something that you can dial in from the cockpit. Sometimes I want to, smoother ride. Sometimes I want to feel really sporty and I want to be able to, , feel a dime or a quarter when I drive over it or whatever.

Louis: 31:26

right,

Doug: 31:27

So this, BYD thing, it looks so cool. It's like jumping over a huge hole, like , a sink hole and I'm like.

Louis: 31:33

Yeah,

Doug: 31:34

Do that, Tesla. That's what you should be doing and forget the gas thrusters., , I mean, I still think it's a bad idea to, , basically go to zero traction. So you'd only do that in a straight line. Someone said Tesla is the wrong brand for that. They make really nice all around cars though, with great software. think I think Tesla is the right brand for doing, , hardware. That's, electric, basically, , a motor type thing, , and put that in the suspension system. I think Tesla could do that kind of thing.

Louis: 32:02

I would say, even a little bit recently, but certainly some years back, Tesla is a big operator for pushing the boundaries, right? Trying new things, trying things that other companies weren't willing to do.

Doug: 32:13

Stefan says, they don't do premium. Well, they used to, at least in name, they used to say they were doing premium.

Louis: 32:19

they used to pretend to be premium.

Mike: 32:20

pretended to be premium.

Doug: 32:22

that was a big debate. Back in the day, should Tesla even go down market? You have your fancy Model S and your Model X, , and , Cybertruck is, , trying to be premium, even though they've, obviously did a lot of cost cutting type things there.

Louis: 32:35

I wish they were premium.

Doug: 32:36

maybe actually deliver the Roadster,

Louis: 32:38

Obviously the money is in the mass market. So I think that's important to do that, but I mean, just throw a couple engineers on the premium, just keep the premium stuff going. It's not like you need 100 people. You don't need 100people working on the premium car all the time! But anyway, uh,

Doug: 32:53

so the question was,

Louis: 32:55

Will another vehicle dethrone the Model Y as the world's best selling car? And the answer was yes.

Doug: 32:59

answer was it did, let's, alter this question for 2025. Will the Model Y regain, , the best selling vehicle. You could say part of the reason there were fewer sales. Of the Model Y is that, , we all knew this Juniper, , was coming. And while Tesla kept trying to downplay it, , so they didn't Osborne themselves. Now it's finally here. So, maybe that will juice the model Y sales and maybe we'll put them over the top.

Louis: 33:25

I'm going still with no.

Mike: 33:26

Nope.

Louis: 33:27

don't think So,

Doug: 33:28

so to the question of, will the model Y regain the throne? You're saying no.

Mike: 33:34

Nope. I think

Doug: 33:34

Okay. I'll say yes, just to be different.

Louis: 33:37

Cool. Perfect.

Doug: 33:41

All right, will Gigafactory Mexico or MegaFactory Shanghai open in calendar year 2024? Now, we all said no on Mexico, and we said yes on this MegaFactory in Shanghai just because they can build things so quickly in China. And the answer was neither opened.

Louis: 34:01

We were almost right.

Mike: 34:03

They were doing testing in Shanghai, but it's not officially open.

Louis: 34:06

Officially opens I think in like the next month.

Doug: 34:09

okay. So for 2025 for this year, that Shanghai factor will definitely open. I'm going to say still no on Mexico. Cause Mexico is all in the air now since, , the new administration wants to have a ton of tariffs against. Our nearest neighbor allies., , and you definitely sensed a change in Elon in terms of putting the brakes on Mexico. I

Louis: 34:36

made some comments , last year, basically saying that they were waiting for the election before deciding to move forward. So they kind of paused it already. And now that the election has gone the way that it has, and also with Elon, kind of a mixed bag, right? Because Elon is embedded into this administration. He's connected to the administration. So if there is financial incentive, is there is an actual benefit to Tesla to do it? And Elon, you would imagine has some influence into it. He could make an argument for it to be viable again. That being said, it's also possible. They just say, nevermind, and they just never do it. but either way, I don't think it happens this year.

Doug: 35:15

the other thing was, , what was that Mexico plant for and our speculation. A year ago was that it was for this model 2 this lower cost vehicle.

Louis: 35:28

So what they said, actually, I looked it up. So it is slated for the next gen vehicle. So that robo taxi, maybe not, , or like some other

Doug: 35:38

our assumption was the model too. Cause , the information we had back then, partially from the Isaacson biography was that cyber cab and. Model 2, we were calling it the lower cost vehicle were the same platform that would happen., and more recently, it seems Elon is stepping back from that and saying model 2 won't happen, but you'll be able to buy a cyber cab, but I don't see why anybody would actually want to buy a car. They can't actually drive. Actually, I didn't even know if it's legal to sell something like that.

Louis: 36:15

You could just put like an X Box controller there and go, it? What was ocean gate or whatever? Yeah.

Mike: 36:21

how well that worked.

Louis: 36:22

do do a nice little ocean gate, Xbox controller to drive your, robo

Mike: 36:26

That was , Logitech actually.

Louis: 36:27

Oh, you're right. You're right. It was a Logitech control.

Doug: 36:29

you're talking about the Titan,

Louis: 36:31

Yeah. Yes. We all said

Mike: 36:33

same page, you know, it's all about the details.

Doug: 36:37

Uh, all right, Will we see the model three, version two in the United States?

Mike: 36:44

A. K. A. Highland.

Doug: 36:45

I think we all said yes, right? And we did see it. so the time we had, Adam, who was a great producer at the time, but that, question, we all knew the answer by then because we had already seen pictures of the Highland, I guess we're calling it in Europe. So that was definitely going to happen.

Louis: 37:02

The next one. Cybertrucks. Ooh.

Doug: 37:04

How many Cybertrucks will be on the road by the end of 2024?, Now, again, when we did this, , a year ago, cyber truck deliveries had recently happened., but they kind of felt not quite real . Cause , it felt like internal people that got them., and they did this big delivery event that was, , four years, , after the original unveiling and that delivery event was. Pretty disappointing in a way, because, the main thing that we, uh, were so impressed by in the original unveiling in 2019 was there was going to be, I forget if it was 50 or 60, but let's just say 000, I think it actually might've even been 40,

Louis: 37:42

It was supposed to be pretty cheap.

Doug: 37:43

was a really cheap 40 60 version of the car. Like, wow, they're going to do that. And, , yeah, they didn't quite do that. The range was much lower than expected. But in terms of technology, it's interesting. The 48 volt architecture for the low voltage the steer by wire and the, , all wheel steering. That was cool. Anyway, options that we were given, , by Adam at the time This is by the end of 2024 more was fewer than 5, 000. than 5, 000, but fewer than 10 K and then more than 10 K. So we all said. More than 10 K, though, we definitely caveated that, this is an exponential kind of thing. Certainly possible that they could stumble. But we said more than 10 K another thing we're talking about is how many would they. Actually get out by the end of Q1, well, if the ramping is going well, they should hopefully have 1, 000 over 1, 000 deliveries by the end of Q1, and I think we're all pretty, pretty spot on., we basically all said the same thing, it turns out the actual deliveries by the end of Q1 was 2, 800, so 2, 800, and so same order of magnitude.

Louis: 38:50

Typical physicist. As long as it's the same word or magnitude, you count it. No, sorry.

Mike: 38:55

That's right, that's right

Doug: 38:57

consider the spherical cow. Okay. So that's how, that's how it works.

Louis: 39:00

The spherical cow...

Doug: 39:04

total number sold by the end of 2024 was almost 40 K. 38, 965 Almost 40, 000. So it was definitely more than 10, 000 and , how's it going now?

Mike: 39:16

not so good.

Louis: 39:17

yes, Stephen's right., , they keep sending people home., see it a lot locally because obviously they build them here in Austin, So I see it in the news here where it's like, all the contractors are sent home. They're told not to come back in. They'll let them know. So that's happened several times.

Doug: 39:31

this is the factory in Texas , that manufactures them.

Louis: 39:35

Austin, correct., so they've, done that a couple times. There's definitely a lot of them just sitting in lots right at, the factory., but I do see a lot driving. I do see a lot of them driving around,

Doug: 39:46

certainly in Austin,

Louis: 39:47

right.

Doug: 39:48

I, see the occasional one in the DC area. I saw a good number in Florida.

Louis: 39:54

I think there's three in my neighborhood. There's two in the neighborhood next to me. so I see them daily.

Doug: 39:59

the main thing is you notice them when you see them, but it's, yeah, obviously nowhere near like the number of model threes. I don't even register when I

Louis: 40:06

I see way more Model Ys, right?

Mike: 40:08

Y is everywhere?

Louis: 40:09

Yeah.

Doug: 40:09

one thing, we talked about last year was how long would this foundation series go on? Cause that was essentially a way of. tesla, capturing that extra value of,

Louis: 40:19

Early adopters that can afford it.

Doug: 40:21

or at least the supply not meeting the demand early , in the manufacturing ramp., so it was basically an extra 20 K. So the question is, how long would they do this foundation series? And we're like, they'll do it as long as they can, obviously. And so the foundation series ended, I think, in October. Of 2024, so that's, , 11 months that they did it, , but we've heard reports of foundation, , series vehicles being available, but they , are sanding off , the special badging and trying to sell them as standard vehicles., That's not great necessarily. and so what, everyone that wanted one has one or what's the sense?

Louis: 40:55

Absolutely. I don't think there's a waitlist at this point. I think if you want it, you got it.

Mike: 41:00

the, market, saturated, , got all the YouTubers and influencers have got their toys and that's it.

Doug: 41:06

you know, I said earlier, it's a very, controversial design, I'm okay with it, but it's not something I would go out of my way to get., They put a lot of capacity in it. Now. dOn't know how they're set up in Texas. If it's like multiple lines or whatever, is there a way to divert a line for some other vehicle or

Louis: 41:25

I think the factory setup would support that, but no, the way that my of what I've seen in, like, the tours and things that people have fulfilled and shown it was inside is they pretty much have dedicated lines because the manufacturing of the panels and stuff is so different. Right?, like I said, it's been in the media a few times locally here., that's obviously gets picked up nationally because Tesla, , but where they sent contractors home and they're like, there's no work. Don't come in., now some of that could be, they're making changes, they're retooling lines, they're doing things,

Mike: 41:53

Hmm.

Louis: 41:54

Um, what it seems to be is just, it's

Mike: 41:57

I

Louis: 41:57

they can now outproduce the demands for the cyber truck.

Doug: 42:01

how do they manage that going forward? Because they've made such a large investment in that plant. what do you do to shift to make that profitable again?

Louis: 42:08

think the, main change is the robo cab or the cyber cab or the robo taxi or whatever the heck it's called. I think that is now going to be manufactured in Texas as well, instead of being manufactured in Mexico. and that also has like the stainless and some of the other things. So there's a lot of overlap in what cyber truck was doing.

Doug: 42:26

had that look, but I don't think it actually had stainless,

Louis: 42:29

Oh, okay.

Mike: 42:30

We'll find out soon enough.. Louis: Honestly, I, I would think For example, what I'll say is a few weeks ago here, there was another, , massive plane that came in. It's like the biggest cargo aircraft from Italy. The assumption was that it was carrying another giga Press? So I think they did just deliver one to the Tesla factory. And again, this is like two, three weeks ago at most. Like I think it was, , that recent., so yeah, so I, they're definitely not doing no production. They're not shutting everything down., , they're still doing work there., my assumption was robo taxi or whatever, but maybe not.

Doug: 43:05

we had this discussion about the CyberCab. And the cyber truck, ideally this stainless production, if they get it down, it should be cheaper somehow. And easier somehow. the issue I see with it though, is, it's, basically a pedestrian hazard. They need to do something that it's not so sharp, , these sharp panels, like Cybercabs, especially, that needs to be really pedestrian friendly. if it hits somebody or whatever., I've suggested you might have, uh, some sort of little gaskets you're running around insert in those body panel gaps on, on something like the cyber truck to just cover those sharp edges. Um, you know, maybe they can do something like that. I don't know, but, uh, or just run some, some caulking.

Mike: 43:51

little Dow cock there, yeah.

Louis: 43:52

Oh boy.

Doug: 43:53

Stefan says it's not even legal in most of the world.

Mike: 43:57

Yeah.

Doug: 43:59

Well, it was definitely made for the U S made for Texas made with hubris.

Louis: 44:03

And I will say I've met multiple people here locally that have them and love them.

Doug: 44:07

And when I, drove down to,, Brownville, Texas back in November , for one of the,, Starship launches, , saw tons of Cybertrucks and really cool people and, , a lot of them had, , special wraps on them and, looks like fun and people, really enjoy them, , but, , , that seems to be a relatively small amount of folks. All right., here's the next question. Will we e see a driverless ride from the West Coast to the East Coast? now in, 2024, we all said no.

Louis: 44:35

Nope.

Doug: 44:36

and the answer was no. And will we see one in 2025?

Louis: 44:41

So if you take into consideration how good FSD v13 is, the answer is

Doug: 44:46

No. Uh, they're making steps, right?

Louis: 44:54

Yes.

Mike: 44:54

are making steps. It ain't there yet.

Doug: 44:56

FSD 13. Hardware or AI 4, if they want to be fancy about it. is better.

Mike: 45:02

significantly better.

Louis: 45:03

I'm confident in my prediction that I made. I don't know what it was two years ago, three years ago where I said 20, 30. Yeah.

Doug: 45:11

yeah, that's, right.

Louis: 45:12

looking plausible to me.

Mike: 45:14

pretty good.

Doug: 45:15

Yeah., , we're still on a level, , two system,. It's basically an, , ADAS, . , we need level four, level five autonomy. For this to be practical. And we don't think that's happening until the end of this decade.

Mike: 45:27

more than that. I mean, you're going to need to make sure we don't have an Arctic winter blast or your cameras get occluded. You won't be able to see where you're going.

Louis: 45:34

Here's the thing. I would even give them that,

Mike: 45:36

oh, I wouldn't.

Louis: 45:36

I'll give them credit. If you have to still manually charge it, you have to clean the cameras or do anything. It doesn't do it. If it's bad weather, you just have to wait out bad weather, like all those things I would still give it to them. If they could get coast to coast, still don't think it's doable. Like, I just don't think it's doable without intervention. with the tech,

Mike: 45:55

That's , no missed exits, no blown stop signs, whatever.

Louis: 46:00

we'll see,

Mike: 46:00

yeah,

Louis: 46:00

yeah, so still going with no,

Doug: 46:03

Okay. The next question was, and this was, , basically the last question we had for 2024, will Tesla deliver a roadster 2. 0 in 2024, now I have to point out that the nomenclature is bad here because Tesla used 2. 0 back in, 2009 for a updated roadster back then there was even a 2. 5 that had a different front and fascia. So I think what we

Louis: 46:28

I mean, the answer is no, either way.

Doug: 46:32

I'm just trying to get the nomenclature, right. That's the nerdy thing.

Louis: 46:34

The Next Gen Roadster

Doug: 46:36

next gen roadster, you know, we used to call it roadster

Louis: 46:39

That's true. We did

Mike: 46:41

well,

Doug: 46:41

Cause it was unveiled , in 2017 and it was supposed to be delivered by 2020.

Mike: 46:46

kind of missed that boat, didn't we?

Louis: 46:47

2017 man. I still remember seeing the unveiling and thinking how cool. And like, I totally want to buy one of those. I can't believe it's been that long ago.

Doug: 46:55

it was a Steve Jobs one more thing,

Louis: 46:59

Yes.

Doug: 46:59

to the, Tesla semi event,

Louis: 47:01

Mm

Mike: 47:01

Oh, you're right. Wow.

Doug: 47:03

the, trailer opened up from the semi and, , someone, maybe it was Franz drove out with this,, roadster and that was really cool. And a bunch of people plunked down money, , for that. The full price at the time was a quarter of a million dollars. And then there was also a deposit,

Louis: 47:18

50,000 dollar deposit..

Doug: 47:20

50 K deposit. Did some people pay full price at that time too?

Louis: 47:23

Yes.

Doug: 47:24

That's a lot of money for a lot of time.

Mike: 47:26

That's a lot of money.

Louis: 47:27

zero interest loan coming up on 10 years. We'll see what happens. that's fair, though. I was living in France when it happened, so that was, yeah, 2017. Time flies, man. Yeah, we'll see. so predictions for this year, will they, deliver?

Doug: 47:42

No,

Mike: 47:42

Not a chance.

Louis: 47:44

Uh, yeah, absolutely not. I'm thinking we might see an update about it. Like we did have some small updates, but they didn't really officially reveal anything. But personally, I think that we might actually get to see like a real, like, Hey, this is what we're doing. And it might come out next year. don't want to say it's copium because I'm not planning on buying one at this point. but who knows? I might change my mind when I see what they do with it. But, not this year, maybe next year, hoping we see an update about it this year.

Doug: 48:12

The thing is that we were promised a new unveiling by the end of last year and it didn't happen., so that, promise was made at, back in, January of 2024, , he said, we'll see something by the end of the year and then certainly by the time that the cyber cab event happened, he's been saying the Roadster's not just the icing on the cake, but , the cherry on the icing on the cake , and I've always said it should be a lower priority that the semi should probably be the main priority in terms of doing something that, , is helpful to the environment or whatever., and then of course the Y and things like that are profitable for the company, but it's nice to have a proper flagship vehicle. I don't think the Cybertruck is a great flagship vehicle. but the Roadster certainly would be. So yeah, I guess we'll see, but, I don't think the roaster will deliver in 2025. I think that actually is a worse deal than us with, our FSD. the

Louis: 49:08

Mm hmm.

Doug: 49:10

I mean, it's fewer people, but the level of which those people made a commitment and they're still waiting. Man,

Louis: 49:17

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if they gave back some money and we just didn't hear about it, right? Like it's like hey, we'll give you back the money for some period but you got to sign something to agree not to say anything but I don't know,

Doug: 49:28

that's rough. I get my money back and I got to sign an NDA. You think they would do that just to get my own money back?

Louis: 49:34

but you're still on the list that you're in your slot. You know what I mean? Cause I mean, that's a lot of money. Can you imagine a quarter million dollars? Sure. The majority of people that gave them a quarter million dollars are quite wealthy. And it's not a big deal to them, but I mean, even just in an index fund, right? They're out a lot of money. The cost is way higher.

Mike: 49:53

Think of all the Bitcoin you could have bought with it.

Louis: 49:55

or Nvidia stock, this is 2017. Anyway, so we'll see. all right. So that was our last question that we did for 2024. And now we have some new questions.

Doug: 50:08

When will RoboTaxi start delivery?

Louis: 50:11

Not this year.

Mike: 50:13

Uh, yeah.

Doug: 50:15

did he say? Actually, we had so little information at that WeRobot event. anD I've said this in the past, that even with the existing technology now, certainly with hardware 4 and, FSD 13, they could do a geofenced kind of thing. I think FSD is probably good enough.

Mike: 50:33

who Tesla Tesla doesn't have the structure of the run taxis right now.

Doug: 50:38

They could they're trying to they have an app

Mike: 50:41

they have the hardware, but they don't have the actual business infrastructure.

Doug: 50:44

they can do it

Louis: 50:46

they could, they could do it.

Mike: 50:47

ha ha ha.

Doug: 50:48

program of 10 cars in Austin or whatever they could certainly do it And I think probably they should do it. They'll probably learn a lot.

Louis: 50:57

They, probably need six months to build out whatever they need to build that. I mean, they have the capital to make it happen.

Mike: 51:02

They do have capital.

Doug: 51:03

They certainly have the capital and I think they have the software infrastructure for it., they just need to extend what they have., they've certainly been preparing for it and they've showed off their little app , or a demo of it. Maybe it didn't actually do anything, but, they managed to do essentially that at this, we robot event, the cyber cab event,

Mike: 51:19

That was a very controlled environment.

Doug: 51:21

very controlled environment. And they spent a lot of time with people with, LIDAR backpacks, really, mapping that place.

Mike: 51:27

I'm sure they did.

Doug: 51:28

but they could do that in the city of Austin. Probably, know, it's certainly more variables. but if they're going to show something, I think that's where they need to start. That before the coast to coast drive.

Louis: 51:40

think they are going to geo fence and actually do a localized taxi service, similar to Waymo expecting that.

Doug: 51:46

I think they have to. And I think that's the next logical step. probably in 2026. I don't think we'll see that in 2025.

Mike: 51:53

Yeah, but I wouldn't say that's starting delivery.

Doug: 51:56

Yeah, that's that's a different thing. Except that, Robotaxi delivery has never made any sense to me not to consumers. Not to me. Maybe To uber or to some other, company wants to be in that business.

Mike: 52:09

Yeah,

Doug: 52:10

I would rather have a model three that I can actually drive, and then my model three, promised will also

Mike: 52:16

a taxi.

Doug: 52:17

can act as a robot taxi. if I want it to, and it will only be driving me around basically. So, you know, drive me to Florida, drive me to Texas or whatever.

Mike: 52:25

We We need to get you in a Y with Hardware 4 uh, road trips down to see SpaceX and see if it actually get there.

Louis: 52:33

I have to, say, I obviously don't have hardware 4, however, they have an updating hardware 3 pulling in a lot of the things from FSD 13 into FSD 12. So I think we're on like 12. 6. 6 or something like that., and it is loads better. It is significantly better. To the point of where I think it is fairly comparable to what people are saying for FSD 13

Mike: 52:54

Yeah, that'd be pretty slick. But I don't think the robotaxis are going to start delivery this year or next year. I think they've got too much homework to do.

Louis: 53:01

So Mike says no to this year, no to next year.

Mike: 53:05

Yep.

Doug: 53:05

the answer should be a year.

Mike: 53:06

Yeah. delivery.

Doug: 53:07

Yeah. let's broaden delivery to, , not just the individuals, like to a company or something,

Mike: 53:13

Yeah,

Doug: 53:13

Let's even, extend it to Tesla, putting them in the wild, , Let's put it that way.

Mike: 53:18

So I was going to say 29 for delivery to an organization like Uber, for example,

Doug: 53:23

hmm.

Mike: 53:24

who wants to do a test, if you want it in the wild, then I'm going to say we're in the 30s. At least

Louis: 53:32

Damn.

Doug: 53:32

I, don't think they can wait that long.

Louis: 53:34

Yeah. I, I think it's going to be sooner than that.

Mike: 53:36

don't think they got the resources. I really don't. I mean, they got the money. but I don't think they have the resources.

Doug: 53:41

Well, isn't money resources?

Mike: 53:44

just a piece of resource.

Doug: 53:46

Money buys other resources. Money can be exchanged for goods and services.

Mike: 53:50

think how many problems are going to get uncovered in the wild with this thing.

Doug: 53:53

I think the problems are probably livable., what they, do need is, a backstop. Like, pull over or remote control or, , something.

Mike: 54:03

I was talking to someone just about this and I'm thinking, what's Tesla going to do with a robo taxi? Someone drops an orange cone in front and back on the side, like happened to Cruz, Cruz had a way to override the computer, basically do, , remote control,

Louis: 54:16

Yeah. But Tesla technically does too, right? We've already seen

Mike: 54:19

they

Louis: 54:20

okay. We have not seen them do that.

Mike: 54:22

in theory? I think they could.

Louis: 54:24

we know through security researchers, you can control the car.

Mike: 54:29

agree,

Louis: 54:29

So in theory, yes, they could have the ability to do

Mike: 54:34

but I haven't seen it.

Louis: 54:35

the next year or two,

Doug: 54:36

the other thing, there was that, cyber truck that was, set on fire in front of the Trump hotel in Las Vegas

Mike: 54:41

with the fireworks that blew up.

Doug: 54:43

Elon was able to just hand over images, Mike: by the way, look We saw. Here are pictures of the guy stopping at superchargers and like, uh, do you have all that info?

Louis: 54:56

course they do.

Mike: 54:57

they do.

Doug: 54:57

course they do but but you're just gonna give up that info

Louis: 55:00

Yeah, that, was the weird thing, but That's a whole nother conversation.

Mike: 55:03

that's a whole nother show.

Louis: 55:05

I don't, think they'll, need to do remote driving. I think , just having basic things that they could do to override. did that for years. they probably still do to some degree.

Mike: 55:14

I think by, 2027 you'll have limited fleet testing.

Louis: 55:17

I agree., I don't think this year, , delivery to people, not next year, , but they'll have their own on the road next year. For sure. I would be shocked if in 2026, there aren't Tesla controlled ones, even if we can't pay to ride in them.

Doug: 55:32

mm hmm.

Louis: 55:33

2026 for sure. They'll be on the road. 2027. I expect them to be it.

Doug: 55:38

So for the purpose of this question, which we've of very floppy

Louis: 55:43

yeah,

Doug: 55:44

You'll just say 2027 I I said 2026. I think there should be some kind of pilot program by then.

Louis: 55:50

it's possible.

Doug: 55:51

now I'll just say that.

Mike: 55:52

Okay.

Doug: 55:53

Mike, you're saying 2030 or 2027, what are you saying?

Mike: 55:56

2027 for fleet.

Doug: 55:58

Okay. Moving on. Another question was, will Tesla add the single stalk or front camera to the Model S, 3, or X, by 2025,

Mike: 56:08

I would say yes. I don't think they have a choice.

Doug: 56:11

We've seen them , on a week by week basis. Do things like change the button, work , on the door, or change the gaskets those kind of things. I'm nott sure about something that's

Mike: 56:21

say yes, because the current Highland Model 3 has got the computer that can handle it.

Doug: 56:26

okay.

Mike: 56:27

It's all there.

Doug: 56:27

but the wiring harness is the other thing. is it in the wiring harness?

Mike: 56:31

easy. You can slipstream that into production.

Louis: 56:33

the stalk is super easy. People have retroed them on the, my car already, right? They buy housing from a Model 3, buy the stalk, you wire it in. In theory, it should be doable the camera's harder to do, but I agree with Mike, they do have the computer. So the question is, are they going to do it this year? if they don't release it, they'll definitely mention that they're doing it, but I think, they'll release

Mike: 56:54

think it'd be a slipstream feature where it just kind of shows up quietly.

Doug: 56:58

I want them to do it, but I don't think they will.

Louis: 57:01

Yeah. Maybe it's just copium on my part.

Doug: 57:03

So I'm going to say no. So both of you guys are saying yes,

Louis: 57:05

I'll say yes,

Doug: 57:06

and it could be either of them.

Louis: 57:08

either of them.

Doug: 57:09

it could just be one and it would still be yes.

Louis: 57:11

Correct.

Doug: 57:12

yeah, I agree that the stalk should be pretty easy. It's just, , make a new part and then just a little change in their manufacturing. But I don't think they'll do it. and that's what the three, the S and X are overdue for an overall update,

Mike: 57:26

They are desperately overdue.

Doug: 57:28

but feel like their volume is so low that they just don't care.

Louis: 57:31

They don't bother. Yeah, it was 2021 when they last updated them. So,

Doug: 57:35

Okay. So the next thing, will a competing company beat Optimus to market Optimus is currently planning to sell in 2026.

Mike: 57:45

That's kind of broad.

Doug: 57:46

It's a pretty broad question, but there is a lot of competition now,

Louis: 57:50

This year. I would expect you to be able to purchase a somewhat autonomous robot for your house. Bipedal humanoid robot will not do much useful, , it won't be doing your laundry and cooking or doing that kind of stuff. It'll probably be on more of the adult and inappropriate side of This podcast. I would, expect somebody to be selling that this year based on tech that we have today. But I think somebody is going to sell Optimus like, not for that, but just in general to people probably before Optimus comes out. Now I think they're going to be too expensive. I don't think people are going to buy them,

Mike: 58:30

be toys. Very expensive toys, but they'll be

Louis: 58:33

Exactly.

Doug: 58:34

The robot that we looked at before is by, the company 1X and the robot was called the NEO. and yeah, it looks like a dude in the suit. It really does., but the model is, it's remotely controlled. So, it's kind of a privacy thing., are you willing to, , have , basically a dude, like a driver, , in your house that can walk around and open doors and stuff,, like having a maid or a butler that, works remotely.

Louis: 59:01

Telepresence, yeah....

Mike: 59:03

I can see that for hazardous environments, but it seems kind of overkill for the house.

Doug: 59:07

Yeah, , we should have these guys on the moon doing stuff,

Mike: 59:09

I was thinking nuclear physics labs, but whatever.

, Doug: 59:12

in an interview, one of their ideas was for bio labs. Like, working inside a lab environment

Mike: 59:19

can see that.

Doug: 59:19

kind of things you have to do in a lab, like, pipetting or whatever.

Mike: 59:22

Sure.

Doug: 59:23

you're selling not just the robot, but the lab . Having lab space to do some experiment can be difficult, but you have some lab space and then, yeah, you can do it remotely.

Mike: 59:32

the rent the hired help and call it good.

Louis: 59:34

I used to work on that in medical, right? Da Vinci robots and all that. Like that's, been a thing , for, closer to 20 years, but, yeah, anyway,

Mike: 59:41

So the answer is yes, I think a company will. I think somebody will release something for sale in 2025 that will beat optimus.

Doug: 59:49

let's add another question. will they actually start delivering Optimus in

Louis: 59:55

regular consumers, I don't think so.

Mike: 59:57

industrial maybe, but not Joe Average.

, Louis: 59:59

they're supposed to be pushing to use them in their own factories. Right. So , let's wait to see where that goes.

Mike: 1:00:04

I thought they were.

Doug: 1:00:05

What I've seen of that has been pretty unimpressive. Louis: exactly.

Mike: 1:00:09

Unimpressive or not, they're still using them.

Doug: 1:00:11

Yeah, but is it saving anybody any time?

Louis: 1:00:13

No, it's, a gimmick,

Mike: 1:00:14

it's a sales pitch. Yeah,

Louis: 1:00:15

but if it gets somewhere useful this year, they might sell them to other companies next year, but I don't see them selling them to consumers.

Doug: 1:00:25

Okay. That question was you all said no, will Tesla actually deliver them in 2026?

Louis: 1:00:32

Yeah, no.

Doug: 1:00:33

All right. so next question is, will Tesla offer an upgrade path for hardware 3 owners in 2025

Mike: 1:00:40

Not a chance. I'm a hard no on that.

Louis: 1:00:43

Mike says, "Hard no!" I'm going to copium and say yes, please.

Mike: 1:00:48

Lewis is hoping beyond hope. ha ha

Doug: 1:00:51

I think they have to do something, right? So I'm not sure what that is or how bare bones it is.

Mike: 1:00:56

Oh, I do, but there won't be an upgrade path. They'll, give you a killer deal to upgrade your car, I don't think they'll replace your computer.

Doug: 1:01:03

I think they will, during this conversation, I've sort of decided that they can just use the same chip and then someone just needs to design a board if there's no , hard mismatch on the inputs, , if the data is compatible. Or even if they can just add a chip to translate the data for whatever and they can just use the existing chips, then I think it makes it a lot easier path.

Mike: 1:01:25

That's still a lot of engineering to do in less than a year.

Doug: 1:01:28

To answer the question, I don't think they'll do it in 2025. They'll do it at the last possible moment., and I don't think it even matters until FSD gets to zero interventions, driving, , from here to, Texas or whatever, , then I'll be like, hey, , I was promised something. So maybe at that point. So I don't think, FSD 13 is enough better that. People are clamoring for it, but , say they reach autonomy or whatever. I feel like that's where the step is, Right, And, at that point may even be a new chip by then.

Louis: 1:01:59

Honestly, if they wait long enough to the point where they have that, they may just replace everybody's cars. Right? You get the number of cars on the road down enough. It might be cheaper for them to just go. We'll give you a huge discount on a trade in or some other kind of not. You know what I mean?

Doug: 1:02:15

okay, let's nail down our answers then., in I say no, but yes, eventually.

Louis: 1:02:23

I agree with that. I think eventually they will, But no it's unlikely this year.

Mike: 1:02:27

I'm gonna disagree. I don't think there'll ever be an upgrade path for the hardware. I think they'll take the easy route like Louis just suggested and say, Here's a substantial discount on a new car.

Doug: 1:02:39

The funny thing is by the time it matters, what will the actual resale value of my car be?

Louis: 1:02:44

Very low.

Mike: 1:02:45

probably not much.

Louis: 1:02:46

my car is not even worth a third of I paid for it. And it's less than three years old.

Mike: 1:02:51

Uh, that hurts.

Louis: 1:02:52

just saying,

Mike: 1:02:54

So yeah, , I, think, them offering a killer deal on a new or even a used Tesla that's just a couple of years old out of inventory might be a great deal.

Doug: 1:03:02

that's an idea. It's like, we'll give you an older car.

, Mike: 1:03:06

they take him back from lease returns., why not?

Doug: 1:03:09

Yeah, I guess we'll see. okay. And then, , the last question is kind of a shift. And I should preface this. So, a lot of stuff has been going on., last year we had a question after Elon bought Twitter, will it be the same? Anyway, Twitter is what it is now or X or whatever, I don't think it needs a whole lot of discussion, but, , we all thought, wow, , Elon lost a ton of money on that thing., he spent over 40 billion for it and it lost what 70 percent or more of its value. As a company, but for him personally, it seems to put him in a large, power position, , and in certainly in terms of , influencing an election and, shortly after his net worth, , went up like 200 billion. So, , it certainly made sense in that, , vein for him., so along with that, , Trump has nominated Jared Isaacman, , to be the new NASA administrator clearly Trump, doesn't know Isaacman from Adam, , except that, , Elon must have suggested, , Jared Isaacman. So, probably some changes are coming,, for NASA administration., Jared is kind of an exciting pick , in terms of. Pushing forward human exploration and NASA, and that's something that should be part of NASA's mission while still being cognizant of NASA science, , mission., and , I look at NASA and I see so much wasted money. Mainly because, SLS is essentially a jobs program, and that was to me, part of the problem , with the space shuttle in that it was designed to spread it out all over the place so that everybody's district could have a piece of it. There's so many things that don't make sense. Like we have these cost plus contracts and I think about something like the James Webb Telescope, which, they said, oh, it will cost, , a billion dollars . costing 10 billion and they spend all this money on technology development and yet they put all their eggs in one basket. They make one, right? 10 billion dollars for just one James Webb Telescope. I think you could have just a marginal extra cost. Of say another, 500 million dollars or something like that and make another two of them, you know, , , you spent all this time developing the technology and you're only going to make one, , before you shut everything down, make a few, because like right now, if they wanted to make another web telescope, you know, It would be,

Louis: 1:05:26

Another 10 billion.

Doug: 1:05:27

yeah, probably having to relearn things. why only make one? So that doesn't make any sense to me. so anyway, with that long preface,, the question is,, Will, SLS, the SLS is will, that survive past Artemis II?., Artemis II is the manned mission. That's kind of like. Kind of like Apollo 10, even like Apollo 8, maybe. I guess it's more like Apollo 8, where they just go around the moon and come back.

Louis: 1:05:56

think it's a pretty easy answer and the answer is absolutely not. There's no way SLS almost shouldn't even last to make it to Artemis II. and I think a big part of why I did was like you said, due to the contracts and the jobs programs and all these legacy companies and lobbyists, but because of the shift of power now, even, Bezos is trying to be all buddy, buddy with them and blue origin just did their launch. Like, 5 years from now, space flight in this country is going to be probably SpaceX and blue origin, ? And maybe some other smaller companies that are still around that most listeners probably never heard of., there's a few cool ones though here in Austin., but SLS. I don't see the, Boeing and Lockheed partnership stuff Lasting, , it's so expensive and ROI on it is just awful.

Doug: 1:06:42

a funny part of that is that Boeing is trying to sell off their Starliner and also their commitments on , the space station, yet trying to keep the SLS contracts. Because that's where the money is, , these cost plus contracts. So, as usual, I have a sort of a nuanced answer for this. It should go away. SLS makes no sense. in the, 10 year horizon, it should be , , these private companies that can do it at fixed contracts., the only issue I have with it this kind of question is bounced around on the forum at TMC. We're kind of racing China to get to the moon and, , I've seen some people was like, let China have the moon. We already went there. We need to go to Mars, and. Elon is really big on Mars and he's kind of like moon too, but no, it's really about getting to Mars , for Elon. And, I kind of have a problem with that.

Louis: 1:07:36

You're not going to get too Mars if you don't do the moon,

Doug: 1:07:38

that's possible. He could probably go to Mars, but to me, Okay, Mars is important in some ways, but for the next hundred years, at least, I think the moon is much more important than mars. Much more important than Mars.

Louis: 1:07:53

You need to build a base, build a station,

Doug: 1:07:55

The moon right there, The moon has tons of resources. We talk about mining asteroids But guess what? The moon has been pelted with asteroids for

Louis: 1:08:05

low

Doug: 1:08:06

billions of years or whatever, right? And so, all that stuff should be on the moon., all of the manufacturing we, concerned about pollution on earth, , there's nothing to pollute on the moon.. We can , do whatever we need to do there. There's no life there. One of the big questions that we need to get an answer for is, is there any even microbial life or prehistoric or even dead now, but used to be life on Mars. Okay., once you get people up there who knows that you contaminated. Yeah. where's the moon? There's no worry about that. And yes, , , you can manufacture in a low, , gravity environment. Also, , if you need to go anywhere else, you're in a relatively low gravity well, so the moon is so important and I'm more of the mind of, , if we want to, , back up civilization. Mars. it's going to be a long time before it's really useful.

Louis: 1:08:55

viable., Yeah.

Doug: 1:08:56

really we should be making O'Neill cylinders , space stations at L5 or whatever, all that stuff should just be built on the moon and then, launch from there.

Louis: 1:09:06

We've not had a human actually outside of the earth's magnetosphere for more than a few days, Like, , it'll be. A thousand times easier to go to Mars. If we build up on the moon first, like it absolutely makes a lot more sense there. And everything you said, it's way more valuable in the short term. midterm,

Doug: 1:09:24

If you go to mars, you need resources.

Louis: 1:09:27

yeah, you got to bring everything with you

Doug: 1:09:28

there's not vacuum, but it might as well be,

Louis: 1:09:31

Right.

Doug: 1:09:31

the soil is poison. Um, you need resources so you will need regular supply from earth., there's no independent colony on Mars for decades. You could go visit, you could do what they call footprints and flags, and I feel that's maybe part of., Elon's real impetus. You know, , he talks about backing up the biome. Sure. he already is a historical figure, he's big on getting credit for big things. And I feel like he wants to be, "I'm the one that got us to Mars!" . , but Mars will not be . As important as the moon for at least a hundred years. So we really should be getting to the moon. And then, , China will be there by 2030 and I think they'll do it and China is pretty territorial, there are conflicts in the South China Sea. They're basically, usurping Islands from the Philippines, and there are spots particularly on the South Pole of the moon that are Resource rich and if China gets there first, they may stake out a lot of that stuff NASA goes on about the Artemis Accords, which to me is a little silly because, most of the countries that have signed on to the Artemis Accords aren't getting to the moon on their own anyway. well, guess what? China is not part of those accords and China is going to get there and stake out the best resources that we need to get there too. Okay, so all of that. I don't know that we can get something together before 2030 without SLS.

Louis: 1:10:57

NO, no way.

Doug: 1:10:58

That's the one thing about it.

Louis: 1:10:59

Yeah.

Doug: 1:11:00

But I don't think it will survive. I think there definitely will be a major change. don't think the block B will be made of SLS.

Louis: 1:11:08

I don't even think Boeing should survive as a company

Doug: 1:11:11

I mean,

Louis: 1:11:12

by 2030.

Doug: 1:11:13

yeah,

Louis: 1:11:13

they just shouldn't even be a company anymore at this point. But, you know, whatever.

Doug: 1:11:17

So we'll see. you think about all those Southern senators and congressmen that,

Louis: 1:11:21

they're constituents.

Doug: 1:11:22

That have those entrenched interests and a lot of them are Republican

Louis: 1:11:27

So what is your actual answer? do you think it will, do you think it won't, obviously you don't think it should.

Doug: 1:11:31

I think it won't, but I don't know that we can come up with something else fast enough.

Louis: 1:11:36

Okay.

Doug: 1:11:36

think Artemis 2 will happen., they started building it, as quickly as they could before the end of the year. so I, I think that will happen. But, it probably won't, survive past Artemis 2, least in its current form,, Louis: How about you, Mike? Are you also in camp? No.

Mike: 1:11:49

won't survive. It's unfortunate, but it won't.

Doug: 1:11:53

Okay. Well, I guess we're done with our predictions.

. Louis: 1:11:56

Well, thank you everyone for hanging out with us. And as always Love the comments and the chat. Keep coming , like and subscribe, become a supporting member on TeslaMotorsClub.Com. That always helps out., this was episode 71. That's a wrap. See you guys next time.