Seb: 0:00

Hey, everybody. Welcome to the Tesla Motors Club podcast. My name is Seb.

Mike: 0:04

I'm Mike.

Doug: 0:05

I'm Doug.

Louis: 0:06

And I'm Louis.

Seb: 0:08

On today's episode, chock full with good content. We're going to talk about the highlights from the most recent Tesla earnings call. We're going to talk about the introduction of the cyber cab and the recall of the cyber truck. We're going to talk about the new model three performance and Tesla licensing. FSD episode 63 starts now. Hello. Good to see you guys in true Tesla fashion. We're starting late, but it's very nice to see you.

Mike: 0:39

Tesla. Time.

Seb: 0:40

I know duck turn up the EDM.

Louis: 0:43

Yeah.

Doug: 0:43

Why did we start late, Seb?

Mike: 0:46

Oh,

Seb: 0:46

disclose that. Thanks. Somebody had to reboot their machine.

Doug: 0:51

Hmm. Hmm.

Mike: 0:53

Well, alright. Chock full of nuts.

Seb: 0:56

I'm not kidding, right? There's lots of good stuff that came out of the earnings call results, maybe not so positive. We'll dig into that in a little bit., but catch me out. What's new guys, Doug. I know , you're to talk about the new, , cyber cap announcement,

Doug: 1:12

Cybercab., there's nothing so special about it except that. It's a name that Elon dropped during the call, We've all been informally calling it the robo taxi. I guess they've been calling it robo taxi. It's funny cause it calls back to. A random time where Elon was walking with someone and someone had a camera going and Elon mentioned the model X and that was the first time anyone heard the model X. And what would that be?, and it would be, you know, a crossover SUV type thing. And so he's referred to the robo taxi as a cyber cab. Does it tell us something about what this vehicle is?, does it relate to the cyber truck? Is the thing going to be stainless steel? Is it going to have styling that looks like the cyber truck? He said he wants the future to look like the futures. He wants this thing to look futuristic. We saw the drawings out of the Isaacson, Isaacson book, which to me, weren't that great.

Mike: 2:02

little three wheel go-kart. Yeah.

Louis: 2:04

First of all,

Doug: 2:05

yeah,

Louis: 2:07

the future as envisioned in the 1980s is not the future. So I'm sorry. I just, I couldn't hold it in. Cause

Doug: 2:16

And I'll reiterate also that future was a dystopian future.

Louis: 2:21

Right.

Mike: 2:21

much so

Doug: 2:23

so, I don't know, really what Elon has in mind, but it does feel a little bit, , juvenile. to me, form should follow function. And so if, they're able to do that, then maybe it'll be okay. But , again, the drawings we saw to me don't look so great. It looks like a little three wheel two seater, , a two seater maybe does make sense in terms of efficiency or something, but anyway, just calling it cyber. Does it mean it's going to be stainless steel? We would expect you would have things like the 48 volt,, architecture.

Louis: 2:53

Is it bullet resistant?

Doug: 2:55

to me, that's the kind of thing that's a waste., but if It's using the same stainless steel, then, that's just something that comes along with it., so, yeah, I don't know., it's very clear that Elon is, putting most of the eggs in that basket. And he pretty much said, , if you don't believe in Tesla autonomy, you , probably shouldn't be an investor in Tesla. Which is the kind of thing he's said in the past, really., are you good enough? Are you good enough to be an investor in Tesla? you want to be part of that club?, Seb: I have to ask a question call just because I've been busy. So are they saying that the cyber cab and the model two, is that going to be the same vehicle? Is the cyber cap, a different vehicle?, I guess that's the part that a lot of people may be. Wondering about, right? takeaway? Yeah, I It's not so clear., Mike and I talked about it on the previous show, , because there was, the media trying to interpret rumors, , there's a sense that the model too, , Or what we've been calling that lower cost vehicle, is that canceled?, my sense is it's maybe the same thing., like they're both at the same time. But it is a bit of a reversal, again, from the Isaacson book, we got the sense that, people were able to convince Elon let's make it the same platform. And, we'll get the lower cost vehicle out sooner. But unclear to me what's the order, like what's happening, , and is that cyber cab, essentially something without a steering wheel? My guess is they're still on the same platform. Is that, , it's going to come out sooner, , perhaps by the end of this year or next year. I doubt that's going to happen, but that's , the fire that Elon lights under his employees, partially by firing a bunch of them.

Mike: 4:36

10 percent that's a few.

Doug: 4:38

so we'll see., another thing is that it's going to be on the same production line as the 3 and the Y. So does that mean perhaps they've scaled back? Some of the,

Louis: 4:49

the stainless steel and all the other. cause you would think it's not going to look like originally the early rumors were like model two is going to look a lot like the cyber truck just scaled down. Right. And I agree, if we're now talking about, it's going to be model three, model Y production

Mike: 5:04

so , go back further, Louis. I mean, the original cyber cab robo taxi was going to be your model three's off lease, which is why you couldn't buy your model three off lease.

Seb: 5:14

Good point.

Mike: 5:15

So, it's a C change, whatever it's going to be.

, Doug: 5:18

I would hope though that it would at least be an aerodynamic design, , which the Cybertruck does not really evoke., you want it to be efficient.

Mike: 5:26

If it's a robo taxi cab thingy bob, it's going to be in town primarily. Aerodynamics are not that much of a concern. Passenger capacity is a concern. Luggage is a concern.

Doug: 5:37

I would think, , if you want it to be lower costs and you can get away with fewer cells, or less battery capacity, you can say,, you want it to be a more efficient and to me, I'm not sold on the, boxiness , of the cyber truck. So, but does it just turn into a cheaper model three?, is it essentially a model three that's stripped out or something?

Mike: 5:56

could see that on the same line easy enough. What I can't see is them building whatever a model two is on the same line as a three in my mind, that'd be very disruptive to the workflow., you tend to tune your lines to make assemblies quick, easy, and optimized and switching models. Midstream strikes me as a bit of a bad idea.

Louis: 6:15

what do we think as far as the innovation in the cyber truck that we'd expect to be pulled down? The 48 volt, for example, I think makes a lot of sense. There was a lot of innovation in., not having to paint in, potentially streamlining, , with your giga castings, reducing. Parts for assembly, stuff like that. So I'm wondering what else you guys think we're going to see in the model two slash cyber cab,

Mike: 6:39

Four wheel steering would be nice. Yeah. That'd be awesome in a cab to be able to maneuver in and out of really tight parking areas on, , street parking and whatnot.

Seb: 6:48

Probably tough to do at that lower price point. Right. I think Mike, I feel like I asked you that question a couple of podcasts ago, what's going to be so materially different about the model two compared to the three that would allow them to sell it at a much lower price, right? Like what other levers it's the battery capacity,

Mike: 7:08

Your battery capacity would be one, but I think if you could do a gigacasting for the whole chassis, I think that'd be a second one. Because right now you got a front and back casting and the battery's in the middle.

Doug: 7:19

If it is a smaller vehicle, particularly if it's two seater type thing, that might be something they can get away with. I tend to think four wheel steering becomes less necessary if the thing is pretty small, but steer by wire might still make some sense in terms of, cost

Mike: 7:33

less parts, less stuff.

Doug: 7:35

fewer parts,

Seb: 7:38

And by smaller, you're thinking BMW i3 smaller.

Doug: 7:42

Isn't that really smaller?, Seb: It's pretty small.

Mike: 7:44

pretty small.

Doug: 7:45

it's short., yeah, I would guess a shorter wheelbase. and then that gives you, , less space for batteries too. Unless you stack them up.

Louis: 7:53

fewer space. No, I'm sorry. This joke is going too far.. Seb: The other question I have, question about the cyber cap is what kind of vehicle is it? The other question, and I want to go to Lewis. Is part of it is the software, right? They showed off the app as a nice prototype. It's probably going to look pretty close when it's released to what they've shown in those pictures, because they have a tendency to do that. But I've seen tons of posts on Reddit where people used summon. In a parking lot at the grocery store and the thing hits the curb or it, you know, it just hits another car So here's the question, Louis, first of all, what do we think about the trajectory of FSD to make it really reliable that it could drive by itself? But also would you have your car just driving around like that completely unsupervised? I would be scared to let it drive through my town. Yeah, with you. I would be scared as well. I don't expect them to do robo taxi where it's people's cars immediately., I know that's the goal. The plan is that , your own car, you can put it into the fleet. I imagine there's gotta be some restrictions and limitations because as we see right now, even with FSD, you're going to have to restrict amount of parking lots or like other things that it can drive into. Right? It's probably going to have to be, you can only go to the street, ? To minimize hitting things., is FSD going to be good enough? And how soon? I mean, we've already done our predictions, right? I think we're a few years away, at least,

Doug: 9:23

To me, there are two main aspects of it. For your own vehicle, ? It's your stuff and how much you're able to tolerate people messing up your car. We've already TNC seen plenty of horror stories with people that Rent their cars out on Turo. the other thing is liability., the only way robo taxi or cyber cab or any of this works is Tesla taking that liability. it's, their software. once Tesla is willing to do that, , we'll see if that makes sense, , to shift just a little bit, Mercedes, , is supposedly having their autonomous vehicle, which is certified level 3 on a very limited amount of, situations where you don't have to look at the road. But you would think that only works Mercedes is willing to take liability, in that instance.

Mike: 10:07

we talked about this last year when it first came up and Mercedes announced, then they were going to take liability. And I haven't seen anything since then to say otherwise,. Doug: it needs to be so clearly. , if you look at Twitter, which is, primarily, Tesla fans, They're upset that, Mercedes gets to claim this because it's such a minor thing., and their estimation, I would like Tesla to do something similar. Okay. Define some strict parameters less than 30 miles an hour on specified highways and put it in the software. You don't have to look at the screen right now. Whatever. And Tesla's taking liability., that's the part. I don't expect Tesla to do Tesla. I think is so much on passing the buck in terms of the liability, and this is why competition is good. Maybe with Mercedes doing the step, I feel like Tesla's already there and they just need to be ready to say, okay, we'll take the liability in this space. Just what needs to be clear is that we're in those conditions. Then, Tesla should be able to do that. It's just that whenever there's an accident, Tesla makes a point of it not being an FSD or you're supposed to be in control., if Tesla could, , make that step now, if you believe in it so much, go ahead and take the liability, go ahead and do it. But, , we need to know when those times are. I would agree. Tesla has a running history of not taking responsibility. I think they're going to start feeling the pressure now that Mercedes has got the official certification for level three.

Louis: 11:30

It's not that impressive as far as like, I agree with you, Doug. I think Tesla's is. Yeah. At the same point as where Mercedes is with, yeah, under the conditions of driving slow on a highway., yeah, , I actually trust my car. I trust FSD to do that effectively. The liability being the concern, I don't think they're going to be willing to do it soon after just because Mercedes did it. I think they're going to keep doing what they plan., so will we see that kind of, liability claim this year? Probably not would be my guess from Tesla. I think they're going to keep pushing for, , improving FSD in a wider range, most of their work that they're doing is not on highway at this point, It's all city driving. yeah, Ethan, commented in the chat., I don't think Tesla feels any pressure based on this announcement. I agree with you, Ethan., there are some people that will probably care more about how the press is portraying it. so I definitely think will react in that way, but I don't think they're like, Oh man, Mercedes did this. We need to do this

Mike: 12:25

Well, I don't think that's entirely true, Lewis, because first they said they were going to not do the small version of the Tesla, version two or whatever you want to call it. All of a sudden they backed out of that and said, Oh yes, we're going to do it, but it's going to be a robo taxi. Something pushed them that other direction. And also Mercedes pops up and says, Hey, guess what guys? We're certified level three,

Doug: 12:46

Well, I, think what pushed them in that direction was , the fact that, , sales are down , and just , the reality of, , the macro environment right now for EVs. So, They're trying to recover faster, getting the lower price vehicles. They've been cutting their own prices. I would say one thing about it that would be difficult for Tesla to do what I was suggesting in terms of, having those strictly defined moments is that, already the promise has been more than what has been delivered.

Mike: 13:12

for years.

Doug: 13:13

So, , there could be the perception that they just need to do everything all at once because that's what they promised years ago., and for them to define a specific set of circumstances might admit too much that they're not actually where they're supposed to be.

Seb: 13:27

Yes. And I would say Tesla has been unique out of all the automakers in that they oversold the level of autonomy. And at the same time, kind of chastised people that got stuck in accidents or other situations and kind of pointed at them saying, well, I mean, it's your fault, you shouldn't have maybe used it or trusted it too much. And at the same time, how long has it been called full self driving? When did that term come out?

Doug: 13:53

it came out , in response to autopilot, not being what autopilot was supposed to be. And, it's, been used so long that the words have no meaning,

Seb: 14:00

Yes.

Doug: 14:01

self driving.

Louis: 14:03

Supervised.

Seb: 14:05

Right.

Doug: 14:06

And now it's supervised. within the name now is a contradiction. cause full self driving should mean that it is driving on its own and it doesn't need to be supervised. So, that's. a conundrum of their own making.

Seb: 14:17

Now here's a feature that would make me want to use the cyber cab though. Imagine you've got the app pulled up, you had a red light and there's a launch button. Wouldn't that be awesome in the cyber beast or the plaid and you can just

Mike: 14:29

Have a plaid cab.

Seb: 14:31

plaid cab.

Louis: 14:33

What, if they charge you like five bucks every time you hit the button?

Mike: 14:37

Yeah, might be worth it once or twice.

Louis: 14:40

Would you still hit it?

Seb: 14:42

That's good. Well, speaking of performance. They just announced not really , with great fanfare, I would say, but there's definitely been a couple of, new commercials on YouTube. I saw there's been emails. I think Doug, they're coming after you to ask you to upgrade. It's on the website. Long story short, new model three performance is out. We talked about it a few times, ? When. the new version of the model three, the Highland code name came out. We knew the performance hadn't been announced at the time. Now it's out. So what do you guys think? was it worth the wait? How does it look to you? What's everybody thinking? It's

Doug: 15:19

So as far as I know, I don't think any actual deliveries has happened. We've seen, , test drives from people like Marcus Brownlee, and others, , and you can order it now.

Mike: 15:27

Yes, you can.

Doug: 15:28

don't, know that anyone has, necessarily gotten it yet. we've seen bits before, of like the special seats that it might have,

Mike: 15:35

It's ventilated seats now.

Doug: 15:36

Well, , ventilated seats came along with the upgrade, I test drove like a couple months ago and I had the ventilated seats, , but these seats have more bolstering. They're basically sporty seats ludicrous, , which is, Spaceballs version , of Star Wars making and jump the hyperspace. To me. That looks a little goofy. Actually, it's like inset in the seat.

Seb: 15:54

Yeah,

Doug: 15:55

but, I think they said, uh, 0 to 60 and 2. 9, which is pretty impressive.

Mike: 15:59

Yeah, it is.

Doug: 16:00

Seb alluded to it. I did get an email this morning. They're really trying to sell those cars I did a test drive like some months ago and they're like, Hey, what do you think?

Mike: 16:08

I feel very shamed. I've got two model threes. I didn't get an email.

Doug: 16:12

well specifically, I did a test drive of the new one. And they're still trying to sell it to me. my conclusion at the time was it's nice, especially the ventilated seats, but not different enough from my existing car. And even right now, , I like FSD. I use it quite a bit., but I still haven't gotten what I paid for with FSD in terms of , the promise. And, , it was directly asked at this earnings call. Would you, have permanent, , transferable FSD? just straight up said no. Even though they've done it at least twice now, , allowing, , you to transfer FSD. But, anyway, it looks good. I'm not sure there's much else to say about it. It looks good. The performance is good.

Mike: 16:51

Oh, come on. They got a whole page of stuff about it. They've got new improved suspension. They've got new improved quietness on the doors. And

Doug: 17:01

and they, put out a commercial and stuff and that whole advertising team has, , since been, laid off. yeah,

Mike: 17:09

thanks for your work. Appreciate it.

Doug: 17:11

It's funny on, , Twitter, , once it was announced, they're laid off.. What is up with these people? Everybody was saying, oh yeah, they were crappy ads anyway. Oh, , they were so generic and even Elon was like, yeah, it looked like you're advertising any car as opposed to a Tesla, you know, it's got to be special. Okay.

Mike: 17:27

Except they're using it.

Doug: 17:29

Okay. Yeah. But you're using it. And when it first showed up, the folks that, oh, that looks great. And then you find out those people are fired. Ah, well, they didn't do, such a great job anyway.

Mike: 17:37

The life of a fanboy.

Louis: 17:43

The mob can be fickle.

Mike: 17:44

Indeed.

Seb: 17:46

Well, Mike, you certainly have, uh,, Some good appreciation for gas cars, right? So I think somebody mentioned there was a reviewer. I think it was Jason Kamisa, didn't he say that now that the new model three performance is out, there's no need anymore for the BMW That sounded like a pretty big statement to me.

Mike: 18:06

That's a pretty bold statement. Different strokes, different folks. There are people that really like pure speed , and Tesla can deliver that in spades. Look at Lewis, you know, he's got himself a plaid. He gets out there and just tears things up despite what he says. But there's also the other side of the coin where people really enjoy the hands on, shift through technology. The shifter here, the noise.

Louis: 18:32

I do miss my stick

Mike: 18:34

I can imagine. And I would miss the noise of, really winding up getting some revs out of the motor. So it really depends what you want out of it. I don't think it's the end of the M three. Hardly. It may change the M three. It may not, Germans are kind of fickle about that.

Doug: 18:49

take the Jay Leno approach for that., there'll be space for those cars for a while., you know, a lot of those sports cars are becoming automatics these days, which is terrible to me.

Mike: 18:59

That's true. Six, seven, eight speeds. Yeah.

, Doug: 19:02

even if they have discrete gears to shift into, it's happening automatically with the computer., so a lot of that, , involvement, , the engagement , of driving , , Like, already that third pedal's gone, right?, maybe you're paddle shifting. Once you've gone that far, I think probably the Model 3 might be better than that M3, you know?, it's a preference thing. Certainly., my own experience was, , had a Miata for many years. Of course, it's not an M3, but it's a really fun car for the price. And I got that BMW i3 and then of a sudden a year later, I'm like, gee, I haven't driven that Miata because the, that little i3 actually had better performance, than the Miata. Then again, when I got the Miata ready to sell, I'm like, man, this is a lot of fun. It was a lot of fun to roll through those gears. So, you know, as long as they're still making them, , make them more expensive. We're talking about the future, , make it a thing that, is sort of specialized, but, yeah, that model three. It's pretty good. I'm sure. I mean, I'm happy again with my own car, which is years old and it beats everything else off the line., most of the cars, when it comes to a stoplight,

Seb: 20:05

yeah, I'm sure it's an amazing car., I would love to test drive it once they actually become available. Although Tesla, I think stopped doing test drives of the performance versions at local stores, but I'll see if I can maybe get a ride.

Doug: 20:18

Yeah, we'll see. I'm definitely interested to test drive the performance, I'm already driving model three and you're trying to convince me to get a new one, come on, let me drive it.

Seb: 20:28

Well, if you do end up buying one, we definitely want to review from you., like we said, new performance version, not shipping yet. However, the Cybertruck, I think they've made around a couple of thousand, right? That are out in the field with real people. And something wasn't quite right with the accelerator, right? Like what was, uh, what was going on there?

Doug: 20:49

That's why we know that there are a few thousand out there., to me, that's the most interesting part of this recall., there's a recall of Cybertruck because, the, , accelerator and it's two materials. A sort of a crummy bit on top of, uh,

Seb: 21:02

though, right? I mean, it's like a, it's a chrome pedal, which they have in all the performance versions that looks like it's just glued to the actual metal, right?

Louis: 21:11

or something to fix it, right?

Doug: 21:13

but the glue wasn't working because of something they blamed on somebody else. And so the fix was just sticking, uh, rivet on there. It's not exactly pretty. it's a good quick and dirty fix. I would have thought they would have. added a little piece of cosmetics, like, just put a sticker or something on top of that rivet. Cause it doesn't, it doesn't look that great, but it works. it calls back to, the issues with, floor mats. My first car I owned was a, already old Ford Escort and had some aftermarket floor mats just slid all over the place

Seb: 21:44

Performance floor mats.

Louis: 21:45

They had stripes.

Doug: 21:46

yeah, performance as a Walmart performance floor mats or something., and yeah, , they kind of slid around and so, it was possible to get. The accelerator pinned underneath the floor mat, which, , very famously happened with, I think, a Toyota Prius and , some people died with that., now this wouldn't be so much of an issue with the Cybertruck. It's all electronic. It's all, drive by wire in terms of the accelerator and the brake. So very easily you can step on the brake and that will override the command from the accelerator,, as opposed to the thing actually fighting, right? The engine going, and then you're, stepping on the brakes and you might not have enough., breaking authority to overcome engine in the past. So, , as far as I know, nothing really happened. But it was an important thing to fix and there was an official recall about it easy fix. Again, to me, the most interesting part is we learned. The actual numbers, 3, 800 , , which is right in line with what we were predicting. We all said for Q1, it would be less than 10 K and above a thousand say, and we probably all landed around 4, 000 and that's what they did. They paused deliveries, , and I guess now they can continue those deliveries. The aerial photography of, Texas, we see there are a bunch of cyber trucks ready to go. So I think it's, overall pretty positive in terms of what you'd expect from their production ramp.

Seb: 22:58

Yeah. I saw my first one on the road, maybe a couple of weeks ago., I also see lots of Rivian by the way, at the moment, I think they've really ramped up their production. So it's just cool to see, you know, overall as someone who's been following Tesla for so long. is kind of nice to see different EVs on the road now. alrighty. We talked about FSD. There's one more thing that we wanted to get into, which is the fact that Tesla either announced or is interested. In licensing FSD to other manufacturers. So Louis, any hypotheses on what's behind that and who may be lined up to license it?

Louis: 23:39

What they talked about on the earnings call, , I believe primarily because, they're trying to bounce back from the sales numbers going down and,, the stock not doing great they gotta, put out all the good news they possibly can. I think it is good news. We kind of expected it. been rumored about they're going to try to license it out. My guess is a, which major is Ford., just because they've had such a close relationship before I don't think GM would do it. specifically, I don't think Tesla would sell it to GM , , due to the relationship there., and , you've got all the cruise stuff and all that other nonsense going on, so I feel like VW is not buying into the self-driving yet 'cause of their problems they run into. So just looking at the landscape to me, forward makes the most sense.

Doug: 24:24

It is interesting., I would say, Ford, definitely in terms of the relationship with, Jim Farley, so Ford already has their blue crews, right? I could see them doing it on the highway. the fact that Elon said major automaker, , if it wasn't that, I would say, , Rivian is the one that's in the best position to make use of it., Rivian already has a bunch of cameras . Rivian is positioned to do over the air updates., Rivian seems fairly nimble with their software. They had some software issues when they started, but , they're sort of catching up and, , honestly, Tesla did too, , when they were starting with the model S. So they'd be in a position, but the fact that he said major, by no stretch is Rivian a major automaker.

Seb: 25:03

it's Fisker actually.

Louis: 25:06

Are, they still a company for the third time? Are they,

Seb: 25:09

I think they're

Doug: 25:10

that I think they're still around, but there's no way, again, the same reasons. It's not Jim. Elon , he has his, , personality quirks and he has a long memory and he has a thin skin so there's no way. just like it wouldn't be GM , but you know, Ford, they say the right things,, and make the right compliments. Yeah, exactly. I don't know if there's any animosity with Rivian. they are a competitor., they are a lot of, former Tesla people., and I kind of feel like , rivian deals the cyber trucks thunder, especially after the R reveal of the R two and R three, , I think a lot more people are. Probably actually interested in those vehicles than the Cybertruck, even though there's such a huge pent up demand for the Cybertruck of people that ordered it 4 years ago, , still waiting for their vehicles.

Louis: 25:57

I see a lot of Rivians around by me, by the way, and I'm in Tesla land, right? I'm where the factory, the headquarters is., and yet I still see a lot of Rivians, not to say I don't see a lot of Teslas. I've seen a number of cyber trucks, but in my specific neighborhood, , there are a number of S's and, Y's and stuff. there's no cyber truck in my immediate neighborhood. The next neighborhood over has one, but there's a shitload of Rivians. I see R1s

Seb: 26:22

Yeah.

Louis: 26:22

over the place.

Doug: 26:23

well, I would say that in terms of somebody, if they wanted an electric truck and they actually wanted to do truck things, I think the Rivian, got there. And I think that satisfies a lot of what people wanted.

Mike: 26:35

there's two things to consider though. You've got the Rivian truck, and then you've got the Rivian suburban type

Seb: 26:43

SUV.

Mike: 26:44

yeah,

Louis: 26:44

And I see a lot of that SUV,

Mike: 26:46

the SUV everywhere here.

Louis: 26:48

I see more SUV than I do the truck.

Seb: 26:50

Interesting. I'd say it's the opposite here.. Doug: I guess you're more in truck land., whereas, , the Bay area, but also I've seen them on the East coast. It's more, , you're people mover , and the R1S does that, you know, the, soccer mom thing., people are trying to do that with the cyber truck and that's just, , overkill and, if you don't need a truck bed. You'd rather that to be seating.

Mike: 27:11

Well, in our case, we've had soccer teams. We've got dogs to move around. I mean, we don't need a truck truck.

Doug: 27:17

mm hmm.

Mike: 27:17

need the enclosed space

Doug: 27:20

Right. And the Y and the X kind of struggle with that third row.

Mike: 27:24

a bit. We looked at the why with the 3rd row and just decided now too much trouble to use,

Doug: 27:29

well,

Mike: 27:29

but I've got my 100 in for an R2. We'll see what comes of that. I will claim I was looking at the bigger Rivian I've looked on and off several times now., hard, to say what might motivate me.

Doug: 27:43

for those, R2s and R3s.

Mike: 27:45

Yeah. It's a ways off.

Doug: 27:46

that's a little ways off.

Louis: 27:47

And to be fair, Cybertruck just started delivering a few months ago. It's still ramping production., , . Q1, they did , almost 4, 000, , high 3000. So be curious to see, how long does that, keep going?, does it hockey stick up a little bit for a while before it plateaus? or like you said, did Rivian kind of steal their because there was no competition to the Cybertruck. From the time they originally wanted to build it. And then there was a crap load before they ever got to deliver

Mike: 28:15

yeah, I think the F one 50 lightning stole the thunder actually.

Louis: 28:19

See, I think they stumbled, I feel like the F 150 basically dropped the ball because they could have, been this dominant.

Mike: 28:27

they could have, they were first to market. But you're right, they've kind of screwed things up.

Louis: 28:31

I don't see them, they're either taken too long to make them or there's too many problems or don't know what it is I just don't see f 150 like I do Rivians

Seb: 28:41

Hmm.

Doug: 28:42

to me, the main thing with the F 150 Lightning was the, dealer markup. They just really took advantage. Tesla was the first to unveil, the Cybertruck. It wasn't what people were expecting. It was pretty crazy. that appealed to a lot of people, but then, the announcement of the F 150 and then the Rivian and both those managed to deliver before the Cybertruck.

Seb: 29:03

Mm hmm.

Doug: 29:03

but yeah, I think the F 150 stumbled in that, the pricing got crazy because of dealer markups because they do what they, want,

Mike: 29:10

Now, maybe one of you guys have heard this, but I'll kind of throw it out there. On the lightning, I read a couple different places that people have gone to a dealer to get something done to their lightning. Not the dealer they bought the truck from and the dealer says, nope, I can't touch it. I didn't sell it to you.

Doug: 29:27

That wouldn't surprise me, but, I know nothing about it.

Mike: 29:29

that's insanity. The badge says Ford. Your sign says Ford.

Seb: 29:34

Well, I actually think you guys are touching on something important, which may be getting lost these days because buyers now have options. Right. You got Hyundai Kia. There's all, yeah, there's tons of EVs on the road now. Right. That's very different from 10 years ago when it was basically just

Mike: 29:51

I think.

Seb: 29:52

exactly. So I think as an owner, one of the innovations Tesla has always had is how they've changed the experience of buying the car, right? It's direct to consumer,

Mike: 30:02

a doubt. Without a doubt.

Louis: 30:04

I don't think I could ever buy a car through dealer again if no other car company manages to do the experience of what Tesla has like I just I'm just always gonna buy a Tesla from now on not saying that they are the only one but It's that important.

Mike: 30:17

I would agree, but I will give props to a local dealer. I dealt with last week who actually came very close to the Tesla experience. They still were a dealer and they still had paper. You had the sign and all that. But I was in and out of there in an hour and a half with no upsell, no tacked on fees, no dealer fees, you know, none of that crap. It was just, here's the car, here's the price. You want that? Great. Sign here. Done.

Louis: 30:41

Tesla was five minutes in my underwear at my house, right? Like it's, you can't

Mike: 30:46

a visual. Oh,

Louis: 30:47

hour and a

Seb: 30:47

Yeah.

Louis: 30:48

a place. Sounds awful.

Seb: 30:50

it sets the bar pretty high.

Mike: 30:52

did.

Doug: 30:53

I'll tell you though, a couple of months ago, , when I went and test drove a bunch of vehicles, including the newer model three, and then also a Porsche and Audi, the Porsche and Audi people, they called me back once. And I kind of said, well, , I'll let you know,. And they've never called me again. And Tesla has been texting me at least five times. in terms of the desperation, , I've been feeling it more from Tesla,

Mike: 31:17

Well, and that's a good point., I've dealt with a couple of EV manufacturers, myself, looking around, poking things and only Tesla called back only Tesla., I have not talked to a Rivian sales rep, everything's been just online., the dealer I dealt with last week actually called me back a couple of times before, and they called me back twice afterwards to make sure everything was fine. I was happy with the deal. That's great. some of the dealers I think are learning. Some are still stuck in the old ways. I ran into a few of those.

Seb: 31:46

yeah. it's a shame to be honest that not more companies have copied that aspect of the buying experience from

Mike: 31:53

absolutely.

Seb: 31:54

there's more stuff on the list, right? I mean,

Louis: 31:56

can't

Doug: 31:56

you know, by the law,

Seb: 31:57

true. I mean, it's, , you're Right.

Louis: 31:59

they want to write. Like even Ford said, we want to sell direct. We can't, we've got a hundred years of dealership models and lobbies and organizations that won't legally let them do

Mike: 32:10

but It's not even just direct. it's the markup we were just talking about. went to a dealer and they, had the car I liked and they said, yeah, here's the price. No, by the way, here's 1, 900 in DRL options that are non negotiable that you have to take. no, I don't have to take them. Actually. I don't have to deal with you.

Seb: 32:28

I think that part may not change just because it's how these places end up making money and paying the bills, unfortunately, but there's other stuff on the list of pros for Tesla, right? Mobile service. That's amazing. I wouldn't miss that. But at the same time, I'm trying to come full circle and get your thoughts a couple other items. But to me, it seems like it's really maybe the first time that Tesla is not limited by capacity and output, right? We've seen the sales numbers go down a little bit first time. And Doug, I'm sure you have them top of mind. I think it was maybe 10 percent a year of a year or something like that, but

Doug: 33:04

don't expect me at the top of mind, but,, what I'll say is for the longest time. Whether it was true or not has always said , we're supply limited. Like , there's so much demand that we're supply limited and , in the past, that sometimes hasn't rung so true because, they had a lot of control over the supply, right?, or they were, having problems, up.

Louis: 33:26

Sorry. I just want to, give the real number just it was 55 percent revenue drop. It was 13 percent sales drop, but revenue

Seb: 33:35

Yeah.

Doug: 33:36

that's because they've been cutting their prices so much. Right. so the margins have gone down quite a bit. and in that earnings call, , Elon emphasized, they're basically predicting, , we're between two major, times of selling vehicles. And so right now there's a valley, there's a slump here. There's a chasm that they have to cross., and it's the whole industry. It's funny how the rest of auto manufacturers are saying, we're back to hybrids. Which I don't completely understand,, because I think evs are cheaper, as a bridge, maybe hybrids make sense perhaps it's, new acquisitions, existing EV owners, you already have EVs and perhaps, they're good with them. And it's, the convincing of the existing ice drivers , to make that step. And I think hybrids are good, training wheels, as they put it., it puts Toyota in a good position, which is what they've been wanting forever, right? It's just to sell more of their hybrids and to slow down EVs.

Mike: 34:27

one of the comments that just showed up, the user. Wendy, Now we're interest constrained. Uh, yes and no., last two weeks have been kind of interesting. If you've got good credit. And you're careful shopping. I saw interest rates available to me everywhere from 1.9% to 13%, depending who you were talking to. It was a wild wide range.

Doug: 34:50

that's interesting. Cause, The one thing Tesla, as far as I know, doesn't do yet is their own financing. Pretty much every major auto manufacturer has their own financing arm because it is another profit center,

Louis: 35:00

make more money from that than selling the car.

Mike: 35:03

Yeah. No kidding.

Doug: 35:04

so, Tesla isn't quite doing that yet., and maybe they haven't felt the need to do that., but yeah, if you're the one selling the car and you're making some money on that, and then, it may behoove you to, give someone interest rate when the, global interest rate now is, five or something. they can get away with 0 percent financing or 1 percent financing or whatever, but Tesla doesn't have that yet. I guess that's another spot they could work into.

Mike: 35:28

I saw wasn't gm, it was a private. Consortium of dealers and that the hook was,, three years. You can only finance for three years, but 1. 9 is pretty good. because typical that I've seen in the last two weeks was anywhere from five to seven, that seemed to be the sweet spot, the 13 was obscene. that was just a dealer out of control.

Seb: 35:48

I feel like we're on with Dave Ramsey right now.

Louis: 35:51

you know, I think these are all valid points thing to keep in mind even though the economy is what it is and interest rates are what they are the U. S. auto sales market for, Q1 did go up, it went up like or 6 percent year over year for the quarter. 5. 1 percent it looks like. Now, a lot of folks didn't do well, , , I think GM, , fell and couple others went down Toyota though, went up a lot. They went up like 20 percent or something sales, on the quarter. So there's definitely still winners and losers. I think the EV market is probably taking it hard compared to most. the public is fickle and a lot of people don't understand how great EVs are., they just haven't experienced it. Tesla's , they have a lot of levers to pull., so even though things are looking down right now, I don't expect them to stay down. but who knows? none of us can predict the future.

Seb: 36:38

Yeah, very true. Well, , just looking at the earnings and everything going on in the industry, it does seem a little bit like Tesla knew they were going to report. Not the best news, right? We had 10 percent layoffs. We had, , this new cyber cap topic that they all of a sudden brought up. It seemed like they were kind of reaching for a couple of things. They could present to get people excited again, right? Get the numbers juiced., it was kind of crazy to see The stock search and after hours that went up, like 10 or 12 percent but I guess, you We'll see how much of this actually does materialize., there was some interesting news thoughts on, which is that Boston dynamics showed off Atlas, right? And Doug, I think, you know, a little bit more about the specifics, but what does that mean for optimists?

Doug: 37:27

Well, Tessa did mention optimists in the earnings call and that,, there'll be selling, , tons of optimists and that will make a ton of money.

Louis: 37:36

He basically said eventually it'll be bigger than cars.

Doug: 37:38

Yeah.

Louis: 37:39

way bigger than automotive as a sector.

Doug: 37:41

And that's believable. I wouldn't put it past Tesla to sell. Optimists, , with limited function and then promise, , software updates that will like, make it do better later. I wouldn't be surprised that Tesla sold the thing and it basically just kind of walk from one room to the next room and then do nothing else or just be like,. A security thing, just send , century, and then eventually there'll be the folding laundry update,

Louis: 38:04

And that's when I'll buy 1.

Doug: 38:06

yeah, exactly. So I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla does design it for manufacturing and get out the door and there'll be plenty of people to buy it. I mean, people bought the flamethrower. And there are people buying that,, ridiculous, , sledgehammer and whatnot. So, , I wouldn't be surprised. but the Atlas thing is pretty interesting to me., because they've been working on these things for a while. And, they did put out a video. What's funny is the timing. So they put out a video , the farewell to HD Atlas and people weren't quite sure what HD meant., but I think what we figure out is HD probably meant, Hydraulically driven, and we've seen over the years, that,, robot being very nimble, like doing flips and, all this other stuff,, and they've been working on with a single sort of Pogo bot. That was restricted to bouncing around in a radius to then being able to move all X, Y, and then, , this Atlas, which is, a bipedal robot, , that takes some abuse,, but this thing is run hydraulically. And in this video, I mean, you could really feel it like it does some flip and then you see the hydraulics burst out its knee. It's just so rough.

Mike: 39:13

just cringe when I see that.

Doug: 39:18

some time and I haven't had any serious injuries, but I've seen people do something and then, you know. Blow out an ACL or whatever. And that's, what I feel from this robot. And, when boss of dynamics put out this video, , it's kind of funny cause again, on, , Twitter or X, , you would see these comments of like, well, they're throwing in the towel, , optimist is one, Apparently balsa dynamics is giving up.

Mike: 39:42

Right.

Louis: 39:43

For anybody that knows Boston dynamics, though, and understands that they've literally been doing this since the 90s and goes even back before that in labs and M. I. T. like. What they don't, they wouldn't be giving what's that's such a ridiculous thing to say,

Doug: 39:59

Yeah.

Louis: 40:00

they actually have customers. They ship their product.

Seb: 40:02

that's definitely a fan boy thing to say. But one question I do have is when I see these videos and I've been watching them for a long time, it's amazing., that stuff is incredible. So. I don't see them at my local Whole Foods bagging groceries, right? Like is this mostly a military application or are they just sold in low numbers? I just don't understand why Tesla would think the market for Optimus is so large. If I don't see these robots anywhere yet.

Louis: 40:29

they're thinking of iRobot is the problem they're thinking of. There's one in every person's home on the planet and it's like a caretaker and a cook and it does your lot, like all that stuff. But we are years and years and years and years away from that, not just because of software, but also hardware, right?. It's a complex problem on both sides. the reason you don't see Boston Dynamics robots at your supermarket. Other things is because guess what?

Doug: 40:53

they're, expensive.

Louis: 40:54

they're expensive as hell. They're way more than a person., so they're mostly doing jobs that are high risk and considered too dangerous for, like, loss of life., so they use them in, Power plants and, doing like switching of high voltage, connectors and things like that. the other thing is like their battery supply, right? How long they can run without being plugged into power and all that kind of stuff.

Doug: 41:16

the first vehicles were running off a gas generators, right.

Louis: 41:18

exactly. so they use them and they sell them in industrial applications., but to be honest, as we've talked about in previous episodes, guess what? A humanoid robot is not the best, form factor for most work period, it's a phenomenal form factor for being general purpose and like in our human built world, because obviously that's our bipedal form factor. But. Guess what? Factories have shit tons of robots, their arms or their, things that, like, move up and down is conveyor belts and all that kind of stuff. We have tons of robots., a general purpose bipedal robot. While cool and I love it and it's sci fi and I want to own one and I want one in my house, we're so far away from the tech being there to be good in your house. That's why, while I agree with Elon, Optimus could be a bigger business and would be amazing. And I will totally buy one., they're honestly, in my opinion, more on the order of decades away from that being realistic as opposed to years away., so I don't know. We'll see.

Doug: 42:19

Well, , I'm not so sure it's that far away. I think as soon as Tesla is able to, and Tesla will do this, I think as soon as they're able to make it cheap enough., if you can buy it for 20 K, or even, even the cost of a car, say, say it's 50 K

Louis: 42:34

But it's not going to do anything.

Doug: 42:36

Tesla won't need it to do anything. Tesla will sell it and it will just walk around and do nothing. And then everything will be a software update.

Mike: 42:43

fan boys will

Louis: 42:44

I say it's more than a decade away to being useful. How about that?

Doug: 42:49

That's reasonable.

Louis: 42:50

but you're right. They'll probably sell them way before. So basically what Doug was talking about earlier, they published a video saying, Hey, goodbye Atlas. And everyone's like, oh, they're done., they're closing shop. And then of course, the next day they released a video on, , the new Atlas, which is no longer hydraulically driven. Now it's electric. It definitely got some Terminator vibes.

Mike: 43:14

Just a few

Louis: 43:15

it definitely gives you that vibe of, Terminator, where he's against the wall and then his head, , reforms in the other direction.

Seb: 43:21

Yeah.

Louis: 43:22

obviously, it's not as cool as liquid metal, but that's not really possible with physics as we know it., it's kind of neat though. So, , Boston Dynamics has moved over to, a fully electric driven, I shouldn't say they're not doing hydraulic anymore. They're just not working on hydraulic atlas anymore, according to what they're saying., and so this looks closer to being a competitor to optimists, , but I don't know that that's necessarily their intent. I think. The technology has gotten there. The batteries have gotten there. It probably makes sense to move to electric., hydraulic made a lot of sense back when they started. But I'm happy to see there's competition. I'm happy to see , there's now more electric drive research being done more, bipedal robots being worked on., it's exciting stuff. it'll be interesting to see what they end up coming up with soon.

Doug: 44:07

Again, it was funny, Boston dynamics did that, Atlas is going away video. And then the next day they released this video, and then the, overly, Tesla oriented fans were like, well, that's too creepy., and it's hands look like claws. It doesn't have the dexterity, that optimists will have., maybe, , I think it looks pretty cool actually. And I think if you're going to have a bipedal robot. It should be super human in terms of doing things that a human can't do. And also, if you look at the way it gets up, it just makes perfect sense,. If it can flip its feet around like center of mass and just comes up instead of like, , how does a human get up? Oh, they got to put your arm out to the side and watching a human getting up from a lying down position is kind of weird and awkward.

Louis: 44:51

You do a kip obviously, right?

Doug: 44:53

yeah, okay.

Louis: 44:54

You got a six pack and you just flip yourself up.

Doug: 44:56

I, bet you this could do that. I mean, the, the hydraulic, Atlas did that itself.

Louis: 45:00

Right.

Doug: 45:01

anyway, I think it looks cool., the fact that it can rotate. It's body around in a more dynamic way, , makes a whole lot of sense., , and actually how many jobs really need that fine manual finger dexterity, that humans have. if a robot is supposed to the three Ds, the dull, dangerous and dirty jobs , how many of those jobs are like, , do you need to play the piano? Do you need it to play the violin? You know, those aren't the dull, dangerous, dirty ones. I'm having a hard time thinking of which job that fit in those categories really required that kind of dexterity.

Louis: 45:34

No, agree., I think the, human like dexterity in a , bipedal robot is more about the sci fi nature and the being cool factor. So , I totally get it. And yes, in theory, if you could do it well, why not? Yeah. It's just it adds a lot of complexity and cost to something that is so much easier to do without it., and even is not as good as many other things, how many , sci fi movies and games and books or whatever have, like attachments and things, right? They're not using a five finger human like hand. Even folks that have prosthetics do that, right? Even humans that have prosthetic limbs have attachments that they will switch to because it's more efficient and more effective at doing things.

Mike: 46:15

snap it on, snap it off.

Louis: 46:17

so I feel like that's probably the direction they'll go., and I honestly feel like optimists will eventually be in that same boat, right? It'll just make sense to where you have a replaceable. Appendage that you can do different things with., but yeah, anyway, , Boston Dynamics, they seem to be much more focused , they have customers that are buying the robot. So they know they have market demand. They know the things that they need to work on for their particular market segments., Tesla is working on cool. And sci fi and futuristic, which is all great stuff. Love all that stuff. Keep doing it., keep working on those things. I want to buy one. But, , they're not targeting the exact same market , in that regard. Certainly not now. I think, , five years from now, maybe that'll change. Maybe there'll be, bumping into each other. But, , yeah, it's cool stuff either way, in my opinion.

Seb: 47:01

Well said Lewis. I think one thing I hadn't considered really is , the difference in having something that's general purpose versus having very specific applications, right? Mowing the lawn, doing the dishes, whatever it's going to be in like 20 years. But, well guys, I think interesting topics today. I would love to drive the model three performance once that's hitting dealerships. But for today, I'd say it's a wrap. Thanks to a producer, Danny, and thanks everybody for joining. If you would like to follow us, you can do so on Twitter and YouTube. If you'd like to support the show, please consider becoming a supporting member. And of course you can join us on the Tesla Motors Club website. All right. See you guys next time.

Louis: 47:43

you.

Doug: 47:43

Laters.